Lundin Oil, Swedish bad boy

Two Swedish journalists, Martin Schibbye and Johan Persson, are facing long prison sentences in Ethiopia. They were caught 1 July 2011 together with members of the ONLF (Ogaden National Liberation Front) guerrilla. But what were they doing in Ethiopia? In a letter to a friend they say they were investigating the Swedish oil company Lundin Petroleum business in the Ogaden Province. Lundin Petroleum used to be involved i a project to find Natural Gas and most likely they are working closely with the government. Today Lundin Oil is no longer present in the area, but Africa Oil is and they are part of the Lundin Petroleum business group. In Sweden Africa Oil is recommended by financial experts (E24, Privata Affärer) to be a good company to invest money into. Money is always money, blood money or not.

Lundin Petroleum (previously Lundin Oil) has been involved in many shady projects around the world. In Sudan they have been accused to be part in the genocide in the area. Not actively of course, but they have been working together with groups that were involved in the civil wars. Anyway, Lundin Petroleum was last year investigated by the Swedish court if the were involved in crimes against humanity.

Mohammed Hussein has written an article on the Swedish Newsmill. His theory is the the Ethiopian government want to cover up all evidence regarding crimes against humanity and genocide in the area. A New York Times journalist, Geffrey Gettleman, wrote an article about Ogaden in 2007. Here is a video from his visit in the area.

Even so, the State Department, the European Parliament and many human rights groups, mostly outside Ethiopia, have cited thousands of cases of torture, arbitrary detention and extrajudicial killings — enough to raise questions in Congress about American support of the Ethiopian government.

“This is a country that is abusing its own people and has no respect for democracy,” said Representative Donald M. Payne, Democrat of New Jersey and chairman of the House Foreign Affairs subcommittee on Africa and global health.

“We’ve not only looked the other way but we’ve pushed them to intrude in other sovereign nations,” he added, referring to the satellite images and other strategic help the American military gave Ethiopia in December, when thousands of Ethiopian troops poured into Somalia and overthrew the Islamist leadership.

The violence in areas like Ogaden risk to turn the locals to more radical groups with connections to Islamist terrorist organisations. This is the official reason to why USA is working together with the Ethiopian government. But maybe this campaign is what causing the Islamist groups to grow? The real reasons behind the US involvement might not only be to stop terror, but also to get access to the oil? In Sweden a lot of people accuse USA to focus their military campaigns in regions where there are money to be made on natural resources. But maybe Sweden is not much better than USA?

The journalists were writing a report that were going to be published in Swedish papers. The Magazine "Filter" was maybe one potential client, but refuses to acknowledge this. Mattias Göransson, the publisher of "Filter" say that they were contacted by the journalists before they went to Ethiopia, but warned them against travelling there since the risks simply were to big.

The Committee to Protect Journalists does not think he Swedish journalists will face a fair trial. Without diplomatic help from Sweden they will be sent to prison, guilty or not.

However, the Swedish foreign ministry are not doing very much in the case to free the journalists. It just so happens that the Swedish minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr Carl Bildt, previously was a member of the board in Lundin Oil between 2000-2006! Maybe this is one reason to why the Swedish diplomats are using their world famous "silent" diplomacy. In this case very silent. If there are questions raised regarding how Lundin Petroleum act in he area, this might very well be sensitive to the Swedish government since Mr Bildt was part of the board when Lundin Petroleum was active in Ethiopia. There are many questions in his case and very few answers.

P.S: There is another very similar case. The swedish/eritrean journalist Dawit Isaak has been in a Eritrean prison for 3643 days and counting. Lundin Oil also have interests in Eritrea and the Swedish department of foreign affairs does not do very much to free Dawit. "Silent diplomacy" again according to their press releases. Just a coincidence? More questions and no answers...

Read more: The Swedish journalist Kerstin Lundell received the Swedish press award "The Golden Shovel" in 2010 for her book "Affärer i blod och olja" (business in blood and oil) about Lundin Oil.

HD, ETC, SvD1, SvD2, SvD3, Fokus, DN1, DN2, DN3

Israel, soon without friends?

The conflict between Turkey and Israel regarding the Isreali atack on the Gaza convoy last year goes on. The UN has in a report stated that it was OK to stop the convoy, but that they used too much force in their attack.

Last year’s Israeli raid on a Gaza-bound flotilla was “excessive and unreasonable” according to a U.N. panel that also blamed Turkey and flotilla organizers for contributing to the deaths of nine activists.

And it is not only the Gaza incident that is discussed between Turkey and Israel. They used to have a lot of cooperation when it comes to aircraft modifications. But this cooperation seem also to at an end.

"Israel has shown disloyalty in our bilateral agreements in the defense industry area," Erdogan told reporters, referring to a military agreement on the purchase of Israeli drones by Turkey.

"For example, unmanned aerial vehicles were purchased and they were sent back for further maintenance. They (the Israelis) are still delaying the delivery. Is this moral ?", Erdogan asked.

The result of all this is that Israel has almost lost all of their hard to find allies in he region. In Egypt the attack on the Israeli embassy was condemned by the UN, but anyway it also indicate a more harsh climate between Israel and Egypt in he future. The new government is by the people and will probably listen more closely on what the people say in order to not meet the same fate as the previous government.

But the troubles in a second diplomatic mission in a week following a fallout in relations with Turkey underscores Israel's precarious position as ties with its two key regional allies are recast.

Against the backdrop of tense relations with the White House, the shift heightens the stakes for Israel as it braces for a diplomatic onslaught at the United Nations next week. That is when Palestinians plan to mount a statehood bid, raising the possibility of an outbreak of mass protests on Israel's borders.

Some Israeli experts suggested that Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, who is set to visit Cairo on Monday, and Egypt's military rulers could overcome their historic rivalry and cooperate to on further isolating Israel.
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"This should be very disturbing to us…there is a question about our place in the Middle East,'' said Ami Ayalon, a former head of Israel's Shin Bet Intelligence Service, in an interview with Israel Radio. "The Egypt that was the bedrock on which we founded our strategy has disappeared.'

Two lost allies in one year! And the relationship with USA can also be questioned. US military is looking more and more into using Turkey as their strong haven in the Middle East. Turkey has a lot of interests in northern Iraq and when US forces leave Iraq, someone need to take more responsibility in the area. This someone might very well be Turkey. Also the situation in Syria might result in the next Libya-alike operation for USA and NATO. If so then Turkey would be the ideal base of operations.

This might explain the ongoing discussions to base US Predator UAV:s in Turkey. They will of course be used to monitor the situation in neighboring Iraq and Syria.

The US military has flown unarmed Predators from Iraqi bases since 2007, sharing their surveillance video with Turkey as part of a secretive crackdown against fighters from the Kurdistan Workers? Party (PKK), the report said.

But the counterterrorism partnership could end by December 31, when all US forces are scheduled to withdraw from Iraq.
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Previously undisclosed diplomatic cables show Turkey has become highly dependent on the Predators, U-2 spy aircraft and other US intelligence sources in its military campaign against the PKK, The Post said.

Turkey need US support in the fight against PKK and to monitor the situation in Iraq and Syria. US need Turkish bases to continue with their presence in the Middle East and to make it possible to leave Iraq as Obama has promised his voters (remember the US presidential election next year). Israel might have a very strong lobbying organisation in the US Senate, but right now USA does not need Israel as much as they used to do during the Cold War when the neighboring countries were supported by the Soviet Union. If I were the Israeli leaders I would do a lot to make the relation with Turkey work again.

More Money is Needed

At the same time as president Obama is struggling with the US finances, most ongoing military projects are reporting cost overruns. The KC-46 program recently reported cost overruns of $1.3 bn. Now the F-35 program reports cost overruns of $1.15 bn, on the first 28 aircraft alone!

A major Twitter-fight is now taking place between representatives of Lockheed Martin and US senator McCain.

Sen John McCain first revealed the $771 million figure in a tweet on 12 July, calling the cost overrun "disgraceful".

On 13 July, Lockheed Martin tweeted that the F-35 is showing "significant progress", which drew a quick response from McCain via the same online medium.

"To most observers, a $771M cost overrun for 28 F-35s doesn't qualify as 'significant improvement.' Taxpayers deserve better," he wrote.
The dispute could set up a clash in final negotiations over the Fiscal 2012 budget. The Department of Defense has asked for another $264 million to pay the initial overage costs. If McCain succeeds in blocking the additional payment, the money would have to be found somewhere else or F-35 orders could be reduced.

The first rumor stated $771 million in overruns, but that estimate has now been almost doubled.

The $771 million reflects the impact of the 2004 weight reduction redesign on Lockheed's production system, the company said. The redesign carved off thousands of pounds of excess weight, but suppliers could not keep up with the flow of design changes. That led to late delivery of parts, then extra labour hours to install them outside of the normal manufacturing sequence, it added.
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"The F-35 team is focused now on any opportunity to reduce the concurrency estimate and improve the final cost-to-complete on these early production lots," Lockheed said.

$771 million yesterday, $1.15 bn today. And this for the first 28 aircraft. What will happen in the future for the next 2.443 F-35 expected to be bought by US Armed Forces? Obama has a hard time with the budget and the Republicans. He will be forced to make some cut downs. But where?

Rather, the president appeared to be preparing for the ongoing debate on the issues of the debt, spending and taxes in next year’s presidential election.
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Even before Mr. Obama’s news conference, Republican House leaders told reporters that they planned a vote next week on a plan that would increase the debt ceiling in exchange for $2.4 trillion in spending cuts over 10 years and the passage of a balanced budget amendment.

This crisis may be over soon, but president Obama might be forced to make some serious cuts starting next year. 2012 is the presidential election and it will be up to the voters where the cuts will be performed. Do a majority of the voters prefer spending their money on the ongoing war in Afghanistan, buying new aircraft, paying the salary to government employees or letting their war veterans get their pensions?

My bet is that the F-35 program will have a hard time getting more money for future cost overruns. Most probably there will be reductions in the number of F-35 bought by the US. I also believe that US will keep one of the teen-series of fighters as an alternate aircraft program for European countries with bad economy if they can not afford the F-35 for a number of years.

DN1, DN2

Time For Delivery?

The first Dutch F-35 is now under assembly at the Northrop plant.

Northrop Grumman has completed the centre fuselage for the Netherlands' first F-35A Lightning II,
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It will then be integrated with the other major sections for the conventional take-off and landing aircraft: its Lockheed-produced forward fuselage, cockpit and wings; and BAE Systems-built rear fuselage.

The Dutch has ordered two F-35 to start with. These test aircraft will be used for training the first cadre of instructors. Norway are planning to buy four test aircraft to do the same. UK has bought three test aircraft and the first UK pilot has already flown the F-35B (even though as it looks right now UK will buy the F-35C conventional carrier version). Outside of the US these are the only F-35 that has actually been bought yet! The rest are just on the "to-be-decided"-list.

Some countries has not even decided which configuration of the F-35 they will buy. UK is choosing between F-35B/C. Canada is planning to buy the CF-35 with drag chute and drogue AAR refueling (there are ongoing discussions in the Canadian government regarding ordering a special version of the F-35, since it will be very costly for the Canadians). The drag chute is for landing on icy runways. Note: Norway might also be interested in this version of the F-35.

One thing that has not yet been decided, or at least not been made public, is the final export configuration of the F-35. There has been rumors about the stealth capability being less effective on the export version and that not all of the jamming capability will exported. Maybe this problem will be automatically solved if the US does not have money enough to finish the development of these capabilities.

Many F-35 customer are now facing problems with the non-existing time overlap between the last day of operations with their existing fleet of aircraft and the introduction of the F-35. E.g. the Norwegian F-16MLU and the Canadian CF-18 will probably be grounded for good before the first flight of the F-35 in their respective Air Forces. Maybe this will result in that some countries need to buy another aircraft. My guess is that the F-15SE and the F-18E/F will find customers among countries that today are on the F-35 interest list.

How effective will the F-35 be? RAND Corporation has done a simulation of F-35 and F-18E/F versus Su-30 for the Australian Air Force with some bad news for the F-35.

The clear implication of the RAND study is that the F-35 is very likely to wind up facing many more “up close and personal” opponents than its proponents suggest, while dealing with beyond-visual-range infrared-guided missiles as an added complication. Unlike the F-22, the F-35 is described as “double inferior” to modern SU-30 family fighters within visual range combat; thrust and wing loading issues are noted, all summed up in one RAND background slide as “can’t [out]turn, can’t [out]climb, can’t [out]run.”

Worst of all is that the price tag of the F-35 keeps going up. In combination with the bad European economy it will of course affect how many aircraft that will be bought.

But, instead of the poor European customers there are other potential markets coming up. President Obama has given go-ahead to Lockheed Martin to offer F-35 to India. In the FX-3 program in Brazil, F-35 will most probably be an contender. Israel is very interested after Saudi Arabia decided to buy Eurofighters and F-15E.

Finally I recommend this documentary about the F-35.

Avalanche Warning

The Afghan winters can be very cold and normally the Taliban fighters cease fighting during the winter season. Avalanches are a rare thing during the winters and even less this time of the year. But I bet that Mullah Omar can hear the rumbling sound of the avalanche that will start when the US troops start their tactical retreat from Afghanistan.

President Obama plan for removal of the troops has a very tight schedule.

Mr. Obama announced plans to withdraw 10,000 troops from Afghanistan by the end of this year. The remaining 20,000 troops from the 2009 “surge” of forces would leave by next summer, amounting to about a third of the 100,000 troops now in the country. He said the drawdown would continue “at a steady pace” until the United States handed over security to the Afghan authorities in 2014.

Slovenia has decided to pull back their troop contribution to ISAF

. When USA leaves, this will also give an official go-ahead for other countries to leave. Countries that were not happy with being in Afghanistan, but needed to show NATO/USA how much they want to cooperate will be the first to leave. The Dutch has already left the country and France will also reduce their troop contribution.

President Karzai was positive to the removal of the US troops. However reading between the lines one can guess that he will start to cooperate with the Taliban in order to stay alive in the future. The afghan people also realizes this.

“During the Taliban regime there were no suicide attacks, but since these people have shown up in our country we have faced lots of adversity,” said Nasrullah, a shopkeeper in Kabul’s dilapidated downtown, who like many Afghans uses only one name. “When they leave Afghanistan, the Taliban will stop fighting; it is only because of these foreigners they are fighting.”
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“This drawdown will embolden the morale of the Taliban, and actually it has already emboldened them,” the elder said. “The Taliban are saying to the elders not to support Americans or you will be killed, and now they say, ‘The Americans are leaving and your lives will not be spared.’ ”

In the senate the US politicians are talking about all the positive things that have been accomplished during the US/NATO rule. But will it remain so when the foreign troops leave the country? I seriously doubt that.

The war will most probably change from Counter Insurgency to Counter Terrorism. Instead of troops on the ground the US will support the afghan forces with Close Air Support, UCAV attacks on Taliban leaders and UAV and satellite surveillance.

How will Sweden react to the US withdrawal?

- Less troops in the south will give the Taliban the possibility to either take back lost territory in the south or reinforce in the east and the north where there up until now have been a relatively low-intensity war. This can result in heavier fighting in RC North and in the Swedish/Finnish PRT in Mazar-e Sharif. If the Swedish personal losses increase it can end in a public out-cry to pull back the troops ASAP. The Swedes are supporting the war in Afghanistan, but if the cost is to high the support will diminish.

- The Swedish politicians have publicly decided to start pulling back Swedish troops during 2011 in order to have completed the hand-over of the security to Afghan troops in 2014 when most of the Swedish troops will be sent back home. This clearly is a direct copy of president Obama plan. But can Sweden follow their intentions if the security level in PRT MeS is reduced? Or will the Swedish politicians just use the US withdrawal as an excuse to leave Afghanistan in the same way as Slovenia is doing?

Unfortunately, the US plan reminds me of the withdrawal from Vietnam. First a "surge" in 1972 with the Linebacker campaign to bring the north Vietnamese to the negotiating table in Paris. Then a pull-out of US troops and a Vietnamization of the war using South Vietnamese troops to do all the fighting and ensuring the public safety. However the South Vietnamese were not able to stop the north from invading and in 1975 the last US helicopters left the US embassy in Saigon just as the first North Vietnamese tanks entered the city.