The heat is on

France, Dassault and Rafale (the holy trinity) won the MMRCA evaluation. How will this affect the other major European military aircraft producers?

The Eurofighter consortium is getting desperate. Lack of money in the European customers defence budget has cancelled the Tranche 3B upgrade. But now UK is on the offensive in order to support the Eurofighter (and BAE). Previous classified details about the RAF mission in Libya has been released. This of course to stop all rumors about the Eurofighter lack of air-to-ground capability.

Royal Air Force Typhoons flew a total of 3,035 hours and 613 missions during NATO’s Libyan operations, during which they dropped 234 weapons.
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Carrying up to 4x air-to-air missiles, 4x 1,000 lb bombs, a targeting pod and two under-wing fuel tanks, Typhoon can fly at 40,000 feet and at speeds of over 500 knots while using relatively little fuel.

Only the future knows what will happen with the Eurofighter. First the consortium have to deliver the ordered aircraft to Saudi Arabia. After that they can re-focus on developing the Eurofighter. One big problem is that the major Eurofighter users UK and Italy is also in the process of getting their F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. This will add on the economical stress and even further reduce the available money to continue develop the Eurofighter.

What about Saab and the Gripen?

There has not been any more news about the Swizz evaluation. Before Rafale won the MMRCA evaluation Dassaul lowered the offered price to a level well below the Gripen. How they can do that with a two-engine aircraft is beyond my understandings. But Dassault was at that time desperate to get their first export customer. Saab will probably have to reduce their offer as well.

As i see it there are two possible outcomes of the MMRCA decision when it comes to the Swizz evaluation.

- Dassault will focus on the MMRCA evaluation and leave Switzerland for Saab. There are also rumors that UAE are still interested in Rafale so maybe three business cases at the same time will be a bit too much to handle even for Dassault?

- But, most likely Dassault will continue with the Switzerland business case. The MMRCA contract will result in most of the work being performed in India and Dassault need a gap-filler for their plant in France. The money from the MMRCA contract will also result in more financial margin to if needed even further lower the prize to Switzerland.

The end is near

The next few years are very decisive for Swedish aircraft manufacturer Saab AB. The Gripen assembly line will soon be closed due to lack of customers. The only aircraft left to build is Thai Air Force batch 2 (6 aircraft), a few of the South African (most of the 26 on order has been delivered) and a few of the Swedish A2C updated Gripen (31 on order). Most likely this will finished in a few years time. This lack of future sales is however a common problem for all three major European military aircraft manufacturers.

What will happen after this?

- Thai Air Force will most likely buy some more aircraft. 12 Gripen is not a lot to build the future of their air defence capability on. At least 6 to complete one squadron of strength. If the introduction of the Gripen goes well it is likely that they will order another 18 to replace all their F-5. Somewhere in the future it will be a need to replace their F-16. But who knows what the political situation in Thailand will be then? The old king Bhumibol will not live forever and there is no heir that is as accepted as the king. The new prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra will most probably give her brother Thaksin amnesty in the future. What kind of political unrest this ould lead to is hard to predict, but it will not make it easier to sell any more aircraft to Thailand.

- Two of the existing customers have troubles. Tho global financial problems have affected South Africa and Hungary and resulted in lack of money to operate their new aircraft. Of course this will be used by other companies to market their products. But it will be very difficult for them to show that their products are less costly to operate than the Gripen. The choice is between Gripen aor no fighter at all in the future. The outcome of such an campaign could be that there will be no fast jets at all operated in the future in these countries. Rumours say that USA is trying to convince Hungary to focus on helicopters instead of fighters.

- The Czech Air Force leasing contract ends in 2015. What will happen after this is still unknown. The pilots are very happy with their existing aircraft, but pilots don´t decide the future of their air forces, politicians do. Most likely USA and Lockheed Martin are doing their best to offer a "cheap" F-16 solutions in a similar way as for Poland. The F-16 is an older and less capable aircraft than the Gripen, but maybe closer ties to USA and NATO are more important for Czech politicians than the aircraft initself?

The new contracts are still to be decided. But new development in some countries might lead to fast decisions.

- The Swedish minister of defence is publicly stating thet if Brazil buys the Gripen E/F, then the Swedish Air Force will also by at least 10 Gripen E/F. Why he goes out with this message is unclear, but most likely it indicates that the Brazilian government is close to making a deal. The previous president Lula had close ties to France (Rafale), but president Dilma seems it is more important to have close ies to USA (F-18). Unfortunately Sweden is a small player on the global political arena and this might result in a second place in the competition.

- In India the Gripen is not in the MMRCA-competition any more. But there are other business deals in India that might be more attractive to Saab. The MRMR competitin is still ongoing.

Swedish defense and aerospace company SAAB is planning to offer its SAAB 2000 aircraft to the Indian Navy when it issues a Request For Proposal (RFP) for Medium Range Maritime Reconnaissance (MRMR) aircraft in the next few months.

While the SAAB 2000 is being offered with the RBS-15 Anti Ship Missile and a fifth generation Selex AESA radar, what is also interesting is that SAAB is offering re-manufactured aircraft, since the company ceased production of the aircraft in 1999.

“We will take an existing SAAB 2000. We will re-manufacture it and build it up. So it will be ground zero flying hours. We will have all the warranties. We will have 35,000 flying hours. It will have 25 years of support,” said Tommy Hultin, SAAB’s Business Development Director for the program.

That is one reason to why Saab still focusing on India.

This centre is a part of Saab's future offer for the world market. The aim of the research and development centre is to transfer to India continuously, already identified concrete programmes and technologies. The centre will form a bridge between India and Sweden, and together with an initial base of 100-300 skilled Indian engineers, form the backbone of the centre. It will stimulate innovation all around India, said Saab president and CEO Hekan Bushke.

The areas of focus would cover aerospace, defence and urban innovation, including civil security. The centre will be established in cooperation with Indian partners and universities, and will create new innovations, new technology and exporting opportunities for Indian governmental, academic and industry entities.

There are also other interesting Saab products for India. The RBS 70 NG has lately been offered.

The Swedish defense company, Saab, has offered the RBS 70 NG for the Indian tri-service tender for Very Short Range Air Defense (VSHORAD) systems. The tender is for an initial order estimated to be worth INR 27,000 crore (USD 5.4 billion) for over 800 launchers and over 5,000 missiles. Saab says it has sold more than 1600 systems and 17,000 missiles to 18 countries. This could be its single largest order if it works out for them.

- Switzerland has been evaluating fighters for many years to replace their F-5. The evaluation has been stopped more than once in order for the government to find political approval from the the voters. But now they have decided to go ahead with the evaluation again.

Parliament has approved an annual budget of SFr5 billion ($5.6 billion) for Switzerland’s armed forces, including the purchase of fighter jets.

The Senate on Wednesday followed the House of Representatives in agreeing to pay for the new aircraft, despite opposition by the centre-left which is concerned about costs in other areas. Critics also pointed out that the bill could not be challenged to a referendum.

It is not clear if the Suiss Air Force will go for the Gripen E/F or if the budget will only allow them to focus on the Gripen C/D. After all Switzerland is not a big country and the extra range of the Gripen E/F might not be a decisive capability.

I personally believe that Saab´s main focus should be to sell the cost effective Gripen C/D to countries with a low budget instead of competing with the Gripen E/F against the more expensive Rafale, Eurofighter, F-35 and PAK-FA T-50. Unfortunately the countries interested in an inexpensive capable fighter as the Gripen C/D (Croatia, Bulgaria, Rumania etc.) has almost no money at all. There is a need for a deal that gives something in return for these countries. But EU rules today forbid so called offset affairs (if you buy something from me, then I buy something from you).

What will the Swedish government do? They have officially declared that Gripen will be the backbone of he Swedish Air Force until at least 2040. But in order to do so Saab must survive as a manufacturer of aircraft to be able to support the future operational usage of Gripen. Maybe the Swedish government must support Saab in the same way as France supports Rafale? This was the way it was done during the development of the earlier Saab Viggen. A very close cooperation between the Swedish Defence Material Administration, FMV and Saab. In this way the price of export Gripen could further be lowered on the global market. The only thing that might stop this is EU rules, forbidding governments to support and favor their local industry. But when it comes to national security these rules can always be overruled.

Maybe this is a reason to why Sweden has started a governmental organisation FXM to coordinate the government and industry when it comes to large sales on the international market. After all the Swedish government can offer financial support connected to the state bank, offset affairs when it comes to buy military equipment from this specific country instead of others and the Swedish industry can offer offset affairs when it comes to development of sub-systems in the Gripen and maybe in some cases local assembly of the complete aircraft.

Dassault and Lockheed Martin has a lot of support from their governments. It would be very naive of the Swedish government to believe that Saab could survive on the international market without their support. It would also be very naive of Saab to believe that they can do this on their own and that they do not need their Swedish customer.

India Getting Closer to France

Only Eurofighter and Rafale are left in the Indian MMRCA evaluation. Who will win? Who knows, but in the battle-proven aspect, Rafale is clearly in the lead with one tour of duty in Afghanistan and now doing all kind of missions in Libya. The Eurofighter has dropped a few bombs in Libya, but RAF mostly let the Tornado do the mud-moving and leave the Eurofighter to do the top-cover. The Eurofighter is not yet fully ready for air-to-ground missions.

The first part of the MMRCA evaluation was about fulfilling the Indian Air Force technical requirements. To get the best aircraft possible. The second part of the evaluation is about economy and industrial cooperation.

Technically the Rafale may be in lead, but what about the cooperation between French and Indian industries?

France has sold a number of aircraft to India over the years.

Besides the Russian aircraft (Su-30 MKI, Mig-29 and Mig-21), the main fighter aircraft in the Indian Air Force is the 51 x Mirage 2000H, which will now be updated to Mirage 2000-5 standard.

India has approved a $2.4-billion proposal from French defence groups to upgrade its fleet of 51 ageing Mirage fighter jets, a military source said on Thursday.

"The defence secretary has agreed to the proposal put forward by French defence majors Dassault and Thales and (European group) MBDA for the Mirage-2000 retrofit," the source in the Indian Air Force (IAF) told AFP.

The upgrade is expected to include advanced navigation systems, mission computers, electronic warfare systems and radars.

The deal was signed in 2010, but put on hold since France also made some business with Pakistan and were almost on the way to sign a contract to deliver avionics to PAF JF-17. France however decided that the Indian contract, including the chance of selling Rafale, was worth more than the deal with Pakistan.

Note: One very interesting aspect of the Pakistan deal was that the Rafale was out of the MMRCA evaluation for a while, but when France started cooperating with Pakistan they were back in again...

Russia may be the main partner in the Su-30 MKI deal, but there are a number of companies delivering western avionics to the aircraft, many of them French.

- SAGEM Sigma-95 integrated global positioning system and ring laser gyroscope inertial navigation system.

- Thales Topsight-I Helmet Mounted Sight is used in Indian Mig-29. A modified version will be integrated in Su-30 MKI by Indian manufacturer SAMTEL and HAL. Thales did also deliver the displays in the SU-30 MKI, but now they are delivered by SAMTEL in cooperation with Thales.

France do have some ongoing business with India. We will soon know if this will be enough to win phase two of the evaluation.

The Rafale has one other big advantage over the Eurofighter and that is the Rafale-M naval version which could come as a bonus for the Indian navys new carriers. This is however a requirement that is not included in the original specification used during phase one. But both Eurofighter and Gripen are looking into developing a naval version of their aircraft.

This review of the Rafale by a British pilot is worth reading.

PAF Build-up

I found this interesting video (see below) of PAF - Pakistan Air Force pilots flying in Chinese Su-30 MKK.

This "exchange program" is of course partly due to the fact that China is very close to Pakistan and has for long been a key supplier of aircraft technology to PAF. But for Pakistani pilots to fly the Su-30MKK must be very interesting since one of their main opponents in case of a new war with India would be the Su-30 MKI. India and Pakistan has fought two air wars (1965 and 1971, the PAF avoided the Kargil war in 1999), and the ongoing conflict in the Kashmir is far from solved.

What do the PAF have in their arsenal to use?

- 192 x Chengdu F-7/J-7 "Skybolt". This is an good interceptor aircraft due to high sped and good climb performance. But other than that it is only an outdated Mig-21 copy. The Mig-21 was outperformed by the Mirage III during the Israel Six-Day War. F-7 will be replaced with the JF-17.

- 121 x Mirage III.

- 60 x Mirage 5. The Mirage III and 5 have been upgraded during Project ROSE. The aircraft have been fitted with flight refueling probes to train pilots before the convert to the JF-17. Most probably the newest Mirage III/5 will be in service for a number of years as an attack aircraft, but sooner or later they will also be replaced with the JF-17.

- 42 (150-300 will be delivered) x JF-17/FC-1 "Thunder". Jointly developed by Chengdu Aircraft Industries Corporation (CAC) of China, the Pakistan Air Force and the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC). The wing geometry look very F-16 to me. The fuselage have a lot in common with an ordinary Mirage. This aircraft will in the future be the backbone of PAF. The avionics in the JF-17 were supposed to be upgraded by France, but after protests from India (where France hopes to deliver Rafale fighters) the contract has been put on a hold. There are also rumors about the licence built Klimov RD-93 engines not being allowed by the Russians to be sold to other countries, which might stop export of the JF-17 to other interested countries. In the last video below there is a flight display with the JF-17. The RD-93 smokes in similar way to the RD-33 on the Mig-29. My guess is that the JF-17 will be used mainly for attack-missions with a fighter capability mainly for self defence. Se more on the defence.pk forum about JF-17.

- 63 x F-16. Mixed force with old F-16A/B Block 15 and 18 x newly delivered F-16C/D Block 52. Another 14 F-16C/D Block 52 has been ordered. The old A/B will undergo MLU - Mid-Life Upgrade in Turkey. Since Turkey is a NATO allied, and the Turkish industry is working on US blue-prints to perform the MLU, the MLU could be stopped if US wants it.

- 36 x Chengdu FC-20/J-10 will be delivered in 2014-15 and maybe the contract will be for up to 150 aircraft. According to rumors it was initially based upon the Israeli Lavi design, but later Chinese knowledge of the Russian Su-27/J-11/Su-30 MKK has most probably been introduced. But the planned cooperation with western avionics industries was cancelled. This might be a big disadvantage comparing to Su-30 MKI which has state of the art avionics from French and Israeli industries. Instead Russian made avionics or Chinese improved versions have been used. See more on defence.pk forum about the J-10.

Both the J-10 and the JF-17 has 1553 and 1760 databus, which will make it easier to integrate western avionics and weapons. But considering the problem Pakistan have with handling the situation in Afghanistan it is far from sure that western avionics will be available.

Against these aircraft the Indian Air Force have on the front line some 159 x SU-30 MKI (will be 272), 51 x Mirage 2000H, 69 x Mig-29, 200 x Mig-21, 147 x Mig-27 and 169 x Jaguar IS. 48 x HAL Tejas are being delivered, but are far from operational. 128 x MMRCI are under negotiation with Rafale and Eurofighter on the shortlist. 200 x FGFA (PAK-FA T-50 derivate) will be developed jointly between India and Russia.

One very interesting fact from a Swedish point of view is that the PAF is using 4 x Swedish Saab 2000 EAW (similar to the Saab 340 EAW the Thai Air Force have just made operational). These will be used together with 4 x Chinese Shaanxi ZDK-03 (Y-8F600). What kind of datalinks they will use is not easy to say. But I think that no data communication systems delivered separately by Sweden and China would be able to communicate. Instead the PAF must have integrated a system of their own. If this is the case they have a even bigger problem to solve if they want to integrate this C2 system into their F-16. The JF-17 can probably be lead by the Chinese AWACS, but to what use? The only reason would be a one-way data communication to increase situational awareness and in order to avoid Indian fighters. The J-10 in combination with the ZDK-03 could be a very good defensive force and maybe also fly top-cover for the JF-17 acting as bombers.

How long will the US support to PAF continue? The F-16 has an interesting story in Pakistan. US has for many years put Pakistan on their Military Embargo List, but the war in Afghanistan has made Pakistan an important ally in the region. The Usama Bin-Laden case has however clearly shown that Pakistan is not an ally that the US could rely on. Now when the US are withdrawing from Pakistan, the support to PAF will probably be reduced.

Altogether, about $800 million in military aid and equipment, or over one-third of the more than $2 billion in annual American security assistance to Pakistan, could be affected, three senior United States officials said.

This aid includes about $300 million to reimburse Pakistan for some of the costs of deploying more than 100,000 soldiers along the Afghan border to combat terrorism, as well as hundreds of millions of dollars in training assistance and military hardware, according to half a dozen Congressional, Pentagon and other administration officials who were granted anonymity to discuss the politically delicate matter.

Some of the curtailed aid is equipment that the United States wants to send but Pakistan now refuses to accept, like rifles, ammunition, body armor and bomb-disposal gear that were withdrawn or held up after Pakistan ordered more than 100 Army Special Forces trainers to leave the country in recent weeks.
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American officials say they would probably resume equipment deliveries and aid if relations improve and Pakistan pursues terrorists more aggressively. The cutoffs do not affect any immediate deliveries of military sales to Pakistan, like F-16 fighter jets, or nonmilitary aid, the officials said.

The only thing that might make it possible for Pakistan to have future support from the US is their possibility to help stopping the war in Afghanistan. When the US forces are leaving in 2014 there need to be a stabilizing force in the region and this could very well be Pakistan, since the other option (Iran) is not an option at all for the US politicians. On the other hand, if the conflict between Pakistan and India is not solved there will be very little interest for Pakistan to solve the conflict in Afghanistan since they fear to be surrounded by countries with interest in Pakistan territory (Pashtun tribal areas and Kashmir).

Without US support, PAF will be more dependent upon China.

What makes me a bit worried is that there is a well-known absurd logic in Cold Wars. If there is equal strength, nothing will happen. If one country is much stronger than the other nothing will happen, unless there is political will to do so. But if there is equal strength and one country feels that the other may get an upper hand, this country could be forced to act otherwise it would be to late.

The PAF build-up is one reason for why the Indian Air Force is looking for new aircraft. The Su-30 MKI is a capable aircraft, but will have problems with the J-10. Especially if the PAF pilots find some weakness that they can explore.

PAF has the last years been upgrading their aircraft fleet, but numbers is not always everything. Their aircraft (with exception of J-10 and the F-16 Block 52) are a generation older in design than the Su-30 MKI. One reason for why the numerical advantage of the Indian Air Force is being reduced is the scrapping of older aircraft types. But in their place there are now modern aircraft. It will also be so in the future with the introduction of the winner of the ongoing Indian purchase (Eurofighter or Rafale) and the next 5:th generation joint Indian/Russian version of the PAK-FA T-50. I therefore still believe that PAF would be not match for the Indian Air Force as their force structure look today, no matter what the Pakistan propaganda on the Internet say. But maybe the Chinese support will continue in the future with deliveries of the J-20? Then the Pakistan vs India conflict would in all practicality be a technology test area for Russian and Chinese aircraft technology.

Pakistani pilots testing the Su-30MKK.



Propaganda video of the new PAF aircraft.



Indian TV news about the rising capability of PAF.







JF-17 display.



SvD1, SvD2, SvD3

Tomorrow Brazil and India, Today Sweden

Selling combat aircraft is a work like no other. The decisions of nations on which aircraft to buy has nothing to do with strategy or even finances. Politics is the most important factor!

In India Saab is supposed to be out of the competition, or are they? No one really knows for sure. According to official press releases India will go forward with Eurofighter and Rafale, but Lockheed Martin has objected and most probably the decision will wait for a while.

In Brazil the FX-2 competition seems to be at a stand-still. And out of the ashes comes FX-3! Brazil want a new competition, but this time they will also make room for the 5:th generation of aircraft. F-35 and PAK-FA T-50 will probably be invited.

For this increase to 36 fighters, there would be "Chavez Factor" with their purchases of armaments on a large scale and attraction of the Cold War to the American South, "Chavez Factor" showed to Brazilian society that it does not have the height of Defense country for decades.
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This purchase of the FX-2 could be far higher, because the original FX aimed assembly in Brazil, under license, in a next phase, 84 aircraft model has perfected the first choice, coming to total 120 aircraft interception. Only Chavez plans to reach 150 Su-30 and Su-35BM for its Venezuela. An acquisition is not less than this would cause local assembly or could count on full transfer of technology. Even 120 units produced under license does not guarantee transfer of technology obsolescence.

In Sweden the Minister of Defence will wait for another year before deciding on the future for the Gripan fleet in the Swedish Air Force. Will it be an updated Gripen C/D+ with new avionics or will it be a Gripen E/F with a new fuselage with room for more fuel, weapons, a bigger AESA radar and the F414 engine? Unfortunately for Saab Volvo is together with some high ranking FMV officials doing their best to stop the Gripen E/F in favor for the Swedish license made RM12+ upgrade. No one has yet asked General electric about how they will handle Volvo when it comes to competing a license made RM12 against General Electric F414. RM12+ will also be the end of the line for the F414 design. If Sweden in the future want more thrust it will need to be another engine instead of just upgrades.

But, during this waiting period there is still a lot of work ongoing at Saab.

FMV has recently announced a 1034 MSEK order on upgrades to the Gripen C/D fleet. This will ensure the work at Saab AB in Linköping, Kista, Mölndahl and Järfälla.

Do not forget that there are a number of existing customers who are operating the Gripen. 16 aircraft in South Africa, 14 in the Czech Republic, 14 in Hungary, 12 (so far) in Thailand and more than 100 in Sweden. There are also a number of countries that can not afford aircraft like the F-35 and ar very interested in a cheaper aircraft like the Gripen C/D. This is were the money for Saab is today.

This is something that is easily forgotten in the debate about Gripen E/F or not. The Swedish government has already decided to operate the Gripen until 2040. During these years there will be a need for continuous development of the aircraft. Sooner or later this will result in a major upgrade of the aircraft. Either by a number of smaller upgrades or by a major MLU - Mid Life Update.

There is of course the option of doing nothing at all. But this leaves two possible futures. Either there will be no Swedish Air Force at all or the Swedish Air Force need to replace their existing Gripen C/D with F-35 or a similar alternative starting somewhere around 2025. Will this alternative be cheaper? Ask the Norwegians!

SR