The gloves are off

I recently commented the hot competition between European military aircraft manufactures Dassaul, Eurofighter consortium and Saab. But now it has got beyond hot. The gloves are off and all methods are allowed!

In Swizz papers for the last week and now even in Swedish papers a classified report is circulating. To sum it up it says that Gripen ended up dead last in the Swizz evaluation compared to the Rafale, the Eurofighter and even the existing F 18.

First of all one can ask, who has leaked this report? Obviously there are two (three) candidates:

- A Swizz air force employee, that are not happy with the selection. The Swizz air force have for many years been very close to France. Major parts of Switzerland has natural close cooperation with France. One should not forget that about 20% of Switzerlands population are french speaking.

- Dassault, that want to spread as much negative press as possible on their competitors. Rumors are that French security organizations are supporting Dassault. There are indications that the air port police in Geneva have orders to search through Saab employees computers. It so happens that parts of the air port police and customs personnel in Geneva are French! This also goes for Basel where the airport partly is located in France. It wouldn´t be very surprising if these methods are used. They have so before. Remember Rainbow Warrior in 1985.

- Of course it could also be a tactical leak by the Swizz government to be able to negotiate an even better deal. It has according to rumors already worked on Dassault.

There are however many facts that the Swizz or Swedish papers do not grasp.

Many Swizz pilots are happy with the selection. The Gripen is affordable (both in buying and operating), easy to maintain and has a very quick turn around. This will give a high sortie per day capability (note the quote is run through Google translate).

- Can you stand as an expert in the Air Force after the final round for the Gripen, Type E/F?

- Yes, 100 percent. It meet all three tested types identified by the military requirements of Switzerland. It depends on what you need and how much you are willing to pay. There are Ferraris, who can not drive off-road, and trucks that are just too slow. The Audi quattro is fast and affordable. And in this case even more money for the army, which indeed still waiting on new purchases. The Gripen can be for the air policing and air defense used in all weather conditions. He can fight ground targets and be used as a scout. The Gripen C / D is robust, is for relatively low operating costs and has proven itself in the Swedish Air Force and the best international standards.
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- Can you understand that there is now a media circus is coming?

- Partly. There are some who doubt whether everything is up politically and technically correct. Since I can only say that I am fully committed, even though I am no longer responsible. I put my hand into the fire, that's what I'm headed and what we did, was made possible. The three candidate countries have confirmed that we have the most challenging but also a fair evaluation conducted. The more it is now a mess, that recently reached an interim report to the public. This interim report is taken out of context and does not show the context of the overall evaluation. Finally, we were obliged to discretion. As someone has acted criminally. The report is subject to military Vertaulichkeit.

The evaluation in 2008 was done with the C/D version of Gripen. The E/F version of Gripen has a 30% more powerful F414 engine, more fuel capacity, more stores to carry external load, updated avionics, updated electronic warning system etc.

The Swizz air force has not officially decided which version they are going to buy, but there are a number of options.

- Buy Gripen E/F. This version is not yet finalized. The test aircraft "Gripen Demo" has been flying for a number of years and was also sent to India during their evaluation. Compared to Rafale, Eurofighter or F 18E/F the Swizz air force will have much more impact on the design on the Gripen E/F. This due to the fact that they together with the Swedish Air Force will be the first customers. Most likely there will be a lot of cooperation between Switzerland and Sweden in the development. The Swedish Air Force is also looking for a new trainer aircraft and Pilatus PC-21 is a likely candidate.

- Buy Gripen C/D and then upgrade to E/F. This is exactly what the Swedish Air Force has done. Their first Gripen A/B are now being converted to C/D standard and if there is a new international customer on the E/F version the Swedish Government has already decided to upgrade at least 10 Gripen C/D to E/F standard. Most likely there will be more aircraft upgraded in the future since Gripen C/D today is planned to be used until 2040.

- If the financial budget is not big enough there is an option to buy a slightly upgraded version of the Gripen C/D. Note that if the Swizz Air Force cannot afford to buy the Gripen they will not be able to buy the Rafale. Even though Dassault has offered the Rafale at a prize well below what it will cost them to produce the aircraft it will in the end be more costly. Nothing is free and a aircraft with two engines are always at least twice as expensive to operate than an aircraft with only one engine.

When evaluating aircraft and only taking into consideration thrust-to-weight ratio and maximum speed a two engine aircraft will in most cases win over a single engine aircraft. If one should ask the basic squadron pilot he will of course want the most powerful aircraft that is available. In this case, why not the F 22? What one should ask is what can the Swizz air force afford?

The Rafale and Eurofighter won (in the 2008 evaluation) against Gripen C/D when comparing climb performance and maximum speed. At first this would indicate that they are more optimal for defending Swizz airspace, since they would react quicker and reach a target at high altitude in shorter time. But even if an aircraft is on high alert it is not only climb performance and speed that is the factor. Quick power up and short turnarounds are also very important. As I have described earlier the Gripen is designed to be handled by conscripts (very much as i Switzerland), to start on road bases (very much as in Switzerland) and has a turnaround time (time between landing and taking off again at around 10-15 minutes with a minimum of support personnel.

The Swizz minister of defence is publicly stating that Gripen is the optimal choice for the Swizz Air Force. He has earlier stated that Gripen fulfill all requirements (maybe not being the best) and this to a prize well below the French bid. Most likely the industrial cooperation was also part of the evaluation and to Gripens advantage. The Swedish minister of Defence Mr Tolgfors is supporting Saab in this business case since it will be of great importance to the Swedish Air Force. The rumors in the press has lead to two official statements saying that Switzerland is still going for Gripen (here and here).

Well, the fight is on. Unfortunately the Swedish press is (willingly or not) part of the propaganda organization that is controlled by Dassault.

Read the press release from the Swizz Minister of Defence. Read also a report from the press conference with the Swizz Minister of Defence.

DI, Defence Talk

The heat is on

France, Dassault and Rafale (the holy trinity) won the MMRCA evaluation. How will this affect the other major European military aircraft producers?

The Eurofighter consortium is getting desperate. Lack of money in the European customers defence budget has cancelled the Tranche 3B upgrade. But now UK is on the offensive in order to support the Eurofighter (and BAE). Previous classified details about the RAF mission in Libya has been released. This of course to stop all rumors about the Eurofighter lack of air-to-ground capability.

Royal Air Force Typhoons flew a total of 3,035 hours and 613 missions during NATO’s Libyan operations, during which they dropped 234 weapons.
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Carrying up to 4x air-to-air missiles, 4x 1,000 lb bombs, a targeting pod and two under-wing fuel tanks, Typhoon can fly at 40,000 feet and at speeds of over 500 knots while using relatively little fuel.

Only the future knows what will happen with the Eurofighter. First the consortium have to deliver the ordered aircraft to Saudi Arabia. After that they can re-focus on developing the Eurofighter. One big problem is that the major Eurofighter users UK and Italy is also in the process of getting their F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. This will add on the economical stress and even further reduce the available money to continue develop the Eurofighter.

What about Saab and the Gripen?

There has not been any more news about the Swizz evaluation. Before Rafale won the MMRCA evaluation Dassaul lowered the offered price to a level well below the Gripen. How they can do that with a two-engine aircraft is beyond my understandings. But Dassault was at that time desperate to get their first export customer. Saab will probably have to reduce their offer as well.

As i see it there are two possible outcomes of the MMRCA decision when it comes to the Swizz evaluation.

- Dassault will focus on the MMRCA evaluation and leave Switzerland for Saab. There are also rumors that UAE are still interested in Rafale so maybe three business cases at the same time will be a bit too much to handle even for Dassault?

- But, most likely Dassault will continue with the Switzerland business case. The MMRCA contract will result in most of the work being performed in India and Dassault need a gap-filler for their plant in France. The money from the MMRCA contract will also result in more financial margin to if needed even further lower the prize to Switzerland.

Sweden = Switzerland

A lot of people around the world (mostly in the big country on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean) has big problems in knowing the difference between Sweden and Switzerland. Well, to be honest, it is easy to mix the two countries up.

Both are democratic, neutral countries that avoided both the first and the second world war. Both are outside of NATO (even though Sweden is getting closer and closer and Switzerland takes part in NATO PfP).

During the Cold War, Switzerland was a buffer zone between East and West, much in the same way as Sweden. As a result Switzerland together with Sweden still are considered to be neutral enough to supervise the armistice line between North and South Korea.

But there are also differences.

Switzerland is not an member of EU and therefore does not take part in the plans for a common European defence. Sweden on the other hand is very active in EU since the lack of a NATO-membership has resulted in the need to seek protection from another organisation. Much in the same way as Finland and Ireland, Sweden is instead very active in the EU Battlegroup koncept.

Switzerland is a new member of the UN (Sweden has since Dag Hammarskjöld been very close to the UN), but has like Sweden taken part in peace keeping operations. So far Switzerland has stayed out of peace enforcing operations such as Afghanistan or Libya. Sweden on the other side is planning to use its professional corps in a more aggressive way in the future. Libya might just be the start of it.

Switzerland has build its defence capability on a large conscript force numbering some 600.000 men. Sweden has recently changed its armed forces structure from a conscript system of about 800.000 men to a professional soldier force of full and part-time soldiers together with full time officers and NCO. There are some ideas about doing the same in Switzerland, but I think it will take a long time to switch the system since it has been a part of the Swiss tradition for many years. On the other hand, never say never. It took the Swedish government just a few years to change the system in Sweden. Only the future will show if it is successful or not.

Now the close connection between Sweden and Switzerland are about to get even closer. Switzerland has announced that Sweden and Saab is the favourite in the process of buing the replacement aircraft for the F-5 Tiger. 22 aircraft is planned. No contract has been signed yet and it is not even clear if it is the C/D-version of the Gripen or the future E/F-version.

Why Gripen? How could Gripen beat the Rafale (Switzerland has close ties to France) or the Eurofighter? The Rafale and the Eurofighter are both twin-engine aircraft with a lot of power and a capability to carry a lot of ordnance.

The minister of defence in Switzerland, Mr Ueli Maurer stated that Gripen was maybe not the best aircraft, but that it was good enough for Switzerland and the price was about 33% less than the competitors. The maintenance cost per flight hour is about 1/10 of that of Rafale or Eurofighter.

But the low prize and high bang-per-buck factor might not be all.

Switzerland might get more cooperation from Sweden than from France or UK. There will most likely be a lot of industrial cooperation or off-set affairs. I would guess that the assembly of the aircraft will be done in Switzerland. Companies like Ruag and Zeiss will be sub-contractors. There are also rumors about Sweden buying Pilatus PC-21 as the future lead-in trainer for the Swedish Air Force to replace the ageing Saab 105 (SK 60) fleet. Since Saab is providing training by the hour to the Air Force this might be a very fast transition into new aircraft without the need of Swedish Government approval or a need to follow EU regulations regarding keeping the bidding process open for everyone.

Gripen is also ideal for the Swiss tactics.

The A/B-version of the Gripen was designed for specific Swedish tactics. The C/D-version has been re-designed for NATO-tactics with among other things Link-16, Have Quick, Air-to-Air refueling etc.

Since Switzerland is not an NATO-member, the later capability might not be on top of the wish-list. Surprisingly the previous capability might be so.

Switzerland has a tactic of using road-bases for aircraft operations in war-time. It is a tactic that was developed by German Luftwaffe during WWII when the fixed airbases was bombed and instead the Autobahn was used for aircraft operations. The Gripen is designed in a similar way to take-off and land on 800 m short strips that was part of the Swedish dispersed base system BAS-90.

The F-5 is today mainly used by the Swiss Air Force Reserve. Pilots and maintenance personnel that on a day-to-day basis work in civilian airline companies but during parts of the year fly and operate the F-5. The Gripen is designed to be very easy to fly and maintain. In the Swedish Air Force the aircraft usually were maintained by conscripts with some 6 months of training. All aircraft equipment have self-diagnostics and can easily be replaced on the flight line. Replacing the engine can be done within a few hours on the flight line or in maintenance tents.

From a training point of view Sweden has one very unique capability. That is the vast and sparsely populated areas in the northern part of Sweden. The training ranges are among the biggest in the world. Here low-level flying can be trained without any complaints from the locals. At the Vidsel firing range all type of AA/AG-weapons can be used (including AIM-120 AMRAAM). Switzerland has previously deployed to Sweden with their Mirage fighters for this type of training. My guess is that Swiss aircraft will be a frequent flyer to Sweden in the future. When Switzerland use the same aircraft as Sweden it will also be much easier since a lot of the needed infrastructure (ground support units, generators, fuel, spare-parts, consumables etc) are already in place at the Vidsel Airbase.

But first of all the contract need to be signed. My guess is that the Dassault and Eurofighter consortium will do their best to interrupt the negotiations. There are talks about a national vote in Switzerland. But this will not be to select a more expensive aircraft instead of Gripen. It will be a choice between buying a new fighter or cutting down on the Swiss Air Force to only F/A-18 and in the future nothing at all. But the Swiss people still remembers WWII when they were very close to be annected by Germany. Therefore I doubt they will cut down on their defences.

Ny Teknik 1, Ny Teknik 2

The end is near

The next few years are very decisive for Swedish aircraft manufacturer Saab AB. The Gripen assembly line will soon be closed due to lack of customers. The only aircraft left to build is Thai Air Force batch 2 (6 aircraft), a few of the South African (most of the 26 on order has been delivered) and a few of the Swedish A2C updated Gripen (31 on order). Most likely this will finished in a few years time. This lack of future sales is however a common problem for all three major European military aircraft manufacturers.

What will happen after this?

- Thai Air Force will most likely buy some more aircraft. 12 Gripen is not a lot to build the future of their air defence capability on. At least 6 to complete one squadron of strength. If the introduction of the Gripen goes well it is likely that they will order another 18 to replace all their F-5. Somewhere in the future it will be a need to replace their F-16. But who knows what the political situation in Thailand will be then? The old king Bhumibol will not live forever and there is no heir that is as accepted as the king. The new prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra will most probably give her brother Thaksin amnesty in the future. What kind of political unrest this ould lead to is hard to predict, but it will not make it easier to sell any more aircraft to Thailand.

- Two of the existing customers have troubles. Tho global financial problems have affected South Africa and Hungary and resulted in lack of money to operate their new aircraft. Of course this will be used by other companies to market their products. But it will be very difficult for them to show that their products are less costly to operate than the Gripen. The choice is between Gripen aor no fighter at all in the future. The outcome of such an campaign could be that there will be no fast jets at all operated in the future in these countries. Rumours say that USA is trying to convince Hungary to focus on helicopters instead of fighters.

- The Czech Air Force leasing contract ends in 2015. What will happen after this is still unknown. The pilots are very happy with their existing aircraft, but pilots don´t decide the future of their air forces, politicians do. Most likely USA and Lockheed Martin are doing their best to offer a "cheap" F-16 solutions in a similar way as for Poland. The F-16 is an older and less capable aircraft than the Gripen, but maybe closer ties to USA and NATO are more important for Czech politicians than the aircraft initself?

The new contracts are still to be decided. But new development in some countries might lead to fast decisions.

- The Swedish minister of defence is publicly stating thet if Brazil buys the Gripen E/F, then the Swedish Air Force will also by at least 10 Gripen E/F. Why he goes out with this message is unclear, but most likely it indicates that the Brazilian government is close to making a deal. The previous president Lula had close ties to France (Rafale), but president Dilma seems it is more important to have close ies to USA (F-18). Unfortunately Sweden is a small player on the global political arena and this might result in a second place in the competition.

- In India the Gripen is not in the MMRCA-competition any more. But there are other business deals in India that might be more attractive to Saab. The MRMR competitin is still ongoing.

Swedish defense and aerospace company SAAB is planning to offer its SAAB 2000 aircraft to the Indian Navy when it issues a Request For Proposal (RFP) for Medium Range Maritime Reconnaissance (MRMR) aircraft in the next few months.

While the SAAB 2000 is being offered with the RBS-15 Anti Ship Missile and a fifth generation Selex AESA radar, what is also interesting is that SAAB is offering re-manufactured aircraft, since the company ceased production of the aircraft in 1999.

“We will take an existing SAAB 2000. We will re-manufacture it and build it up. So it will be ground zero flying hours. We will have all the warranties. We will have 35,000 flying hours. It will have 25 years of support,” said Tommy Hultin, SAAB’s Business Development Director for the program.

That is one reason to why Saab still focusing on India.

This centre is a part of Saab's future offer for the world market. The aim of the research and development centre is to transfer to India continuously, already identified concrete programmes and technologies. The centre will form a bridge between India and Sweden, and together with an initial base of 100-300 skilled Indian engineers, form the backbone of the centre. It will stimulate innovation all around India, said Saab president and CEO Hekan Bushke.

The areas of focus would cover aerospace, defence and urban innovation, including civil security. The centre will be established in cooperation with Indian partners and universities, and will create new innovations, new technology and exporting opportunities for Indian governmental, academic and industry entities.

There are also other interesting Saab products for India. The RBS 70 NG has lately been offered.

The Swedish defense company, Saab, has offered the RBS 70 NG for the Indian tri-service tender for Very Short Range Air Defense (VSHORAD) systems. The tender is for an initial order estimated to be worth INR 27,000 crore (USD 5.4 billion) for over 800 launchers and over 5,000 missiles. Saab says it has sold more than 1600 systems and 17,000 missiles to 18 countries. This could be its single largest order if it works out for them.

- Switzerland has been evaluating fighters for many years to replace their F-5. The evaluation has been stopped more than once in order for the government to find political approval from the the voters. But now they have decided to go ahead with the evaluation again.

Parliament has approved an annual budget of SFr5 billion ($5.6 billion) for Switzerland’s armed forces, including the purchase of fighter jets.

The Senate on Wednesday followed the House of Representatives in agreeing to pay for the new aircraft, despite opposition by the centre-left which is concerned about costs in other areas. Critics also pointed out that the bill could not be challenged to a referendum.

It is not clear if the Suiss Air Force will go for the Gripen E/F or if the budget will only allow them to focus on the Gripen C/D. After all Switzerland is not a big country and the extra range of the Gripen E/F might not be a decisive capability.

I personally believe that Saab´s main focus should be to sell the cost effective Gripen C/D to countries with a low budget instead of competing with the Gripen E/F against the more expensive Rafale, Eurofighter, F-35 and PAK-FA T-50. Unfortunately the countries interested in an inexpensive capable fighter as the Gripen C/D (Croatia, Bulgaria, Rumania etc.) has almost no money at all. There is a need for a deal that gives something in return for these countries. But EU rules today forbid so called offset affairs (if you buy something from me, then I buy something from you).

What will the Swedish government do? They have officially declared that Gripen will be the backbone of he Swedish Air Force until at least 2040. But in order to do so Saab must survive as a manufacturer of aircraft to be able to support the future operational usage of Gripen. Maybe the Swedish government must support Saab in the same way as France supports Rafale? This was the way it was done during the development of the earlier Saab Viggen. A very close cooperation between the Swedish Defence Material Administration, FMV and Saab. In this way the price of export Gripen could further be lowered on the global market. The only thing that might stop this is EU rules, forbidding governments to support and favor their local industry. But when it comes to national security these rules can always be overruled.

Maybe this is a reason to why Sweden has started a governmental organisation FXM to coordinate the government and industry when it comes to large sales on the international market. After all the Swedish government can offer financial support connected to the state bank, offset affairs when it comes to buy military equipment from this specific country instead of others and the Swedish industry can offer offset affairs when it comes to development of sub-systems in the Gripen and maybe in some cases local assembly of the complete aircraft.

Dassault and Lockheed Martin has a lot of support from their governments. It would be very naive of the Swedish government to believe that Saab could survive on the international market without their support. It would also be very naive of Saab to believe that they can do this on their own and that they do not need their Swedish customer.

Czech Republic going strong

The Czech Air Force has been leasing their JAS 39C/D Gripen since 2005. And the pilots and technicians has truly shown that they have mastered their new aircraft. During these years they have been transforming from old Mig-21 to a 4:th generation aircraft with datalinks and swingrole capability (possible to change mission type from air-to-air to air-to-ground while airborne.

If you ask a Czech pilot or technician they are very proud of what they have achieved during these six years. This is clearly shown in the popular yearly 211 squadron Gripen calendar. In Sweden the Gripen PR-staff is blushing, these type of pictures are not allowed in Sweden any more. But who cares, everyone else likes these calendars!

- During 2009 they took part in NATO QRA - Quick Readiness Alert over the Baltic countries. With only 14 Gripen aircraft in the Air Force they managed not only to have two aircraft plus one spare in high alert over the Baltic Sea. At the same time they had two more aircraft plus one spare in NATO QRA over the Czech Republic! The aircraft in the Baltic QRA performed more Aplha Alerts than any other NATO country that has taken part in the Baltic QRA. This is good example of the availablility and easy maintenance of the Gripen. The German Air Force took over after the Czech Republic with their new Eurofighters. They could however not get their aircraft working after landing so they asked the Czech to keep their Gripen at the base for another day. A few days later the Eurofighters were replaced with old F-4 Phantoms!

- In 2010 the 211 squadron won the Tiger Meet Trophy as best squadron. This clearly show that the squadron know how to use their aircraft and that they and their aircraft are fully NATO-compatible.

The Gripen squadron has been very busy "painting" their aircraft!

- In 2010 the Czech Air Force also reached 10.000 flying hours produced in their Gripen aircraft. This indicates that they are producing more than 2000 flying hour per year or more than 145 flying hours per aircraft. Since they currently not use Air to Air refuelling this indicates many sorties per year for each aircraft. Also a good indication of the availability of the Gripen.

The Czech Air Force have only 14 Gripen (2xJAS39D two-seater and 14xJAS39C one-seater), but they are producing a lot of flying hours each year. As a fact when it comes to producing flying hours per air craft they are the top-producing Gripen user in the world. One result is that Major Otokar Prickner recently became the first non-swedish Gripen pilot that reached 1000 flying hours in the Gripen!

As a complement to the Gripen, the Czech Air Force have one squadron with Aero Vodochny L-59 "Elka" or "Super Albatros" as they are known in the west.

The Czech Air Force focus on air-to-air missions and thay are very good at it. Armed with AIM-120 AMRAAM, AIM-9M Sidewinder and 27mm Mauser guns the Gripen is a very potent fighter. The Czech government has decided that the air force shall focus on homeland defence and NATO QRA.

The existing Gripen leasing contract ends in 2015. Lockheed Martin is doing their best to sell updated F-16 aircraft to the Czech politicians. But I believe that if the pilots have anything to say about it, they would like to go on using their Gripen. After all, why change aircraft when you have invested a lot of years and money to learn about how to use the existing Gripen aircraft and when the one you have is working very well?

Read more at the 211 squadron homepage.

South African Future

In Swedish press there has been many critical articles regarding the sales of Gripen to South Africa, a nation that need all its money to develop the country. But, who are we to decide what is best for other countries?

Of course there is a need for development in South Africa. There are a lot of poor people, many of them refugees from Zimbabwe, and the criminal activity is very high. When you drive your car around the neighborhoods of Pretoria you can´t avoid to notice the palisades and the barbed wire around every house together with signs stating that intruders will be shot. But at the same time there has also been many improvements. In Soweto the government has built new houses to reduce the "Shanty Town". Unfortunately as soon as one South African moves out of his barrack to a house a family from Zimbabwe moves in.

There are still internal conflicts in South Africa even after the removal of Apartheid. The racial problems are not yet fully solved. Today the white population feels threatened by new laws. The government has introduced new guidelines for accepting students to higher educations. Each ethnical group (white, black etc.) has a number of available spots at the Universities proportional to the percentage of the population. But since white students by tradition and due to the fact that they are more often from richer families, have better grades from the basic schools, they feel cheated since students with lesser grades get accepted when they are not. The South African president Jacob Zuma has also ideas about transferring the ownership of farms from the white to the black population. But the situation in Zimbabwe may have made him change his mind about this. Many whites, also in the armed forces, are leaving South Africa since they feel they have no future in South Africa.

ANC starting with Nelson Madela has done their best to make the different ethnical groups feel like one. Football and Rugby has done a lot to achieve this goal, but there is still a long way to go.

Maybe it should be enough for South Africa to focus on the domestic problems. But, one reason to why the criminal activity is high and to why Soweto still is expanding is the refugees from Zimbabwe. Africa is a turbulent region with many border conflicts. South Africa therefore need to stabilize its borders and maybe even the surrounding countries as well as stabilize the internal conflicts.

This is also the reason to why South Africa a few years ago decided to modernize its armed forces including buying the Gripen. However, lack of money in the defence budget has resulted in that the South African Air Force has not yet reached the number of yearly flying hours and trained pilots that was planned. But maybe this will be changed with the new South African Defence Review?

South Africa is carrying out its first defence policy review in 13 years in a bid to address new security threats such as shipping piracy, the defence minister said Tuesday.
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Threats like piracy and border security were not included in the last review, in 1998, and significant portions of that report were "completely outdated", she said.
South Africa's annual defence budget currently stands at 38.4 billion rand ($5.4 billion, 3.8 billion euros), and Sisulu has been vocal in calling for an increase.
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"I think all of what is happening today on the continent, in the north of Africa and in the Middle East, have to be part of what we need to take notice of as far as the forecast is concerned."
The new review, which has a 6.2-million-rand budget for the year, will be presented to President Jacob Zuma's cabinet and parliament.

I believe that the Armed Forces of South Africa are very frustrated to have all this new equipment and not being able to take part in the removal of Ghadaffi in Libya or the hunt for pirates in the Gulf of Aden. The South African Air Force has a long tradition and has taken part in many wars. Their experience in electronic warfare and Infra-Red technology are world class. Since South Africa was locked out from international cooperation (with the exception of Israel and France) during the Apartheid years, they needed to develop technology of their own. Very much in the same way as Sweden during the Cold War, but for other reasons. The South African/Brazilian A-Darter IR-missile is very closely related to the Israeli Python 5 since they both share their "ancestors". Unfortunately the new focus on the bribes involved in the armor deals may change all this to the worse.

South Africa want to be a local power south of the equatorial line. The African Union - AU has sent a lot of troops to different hot zones in Africa, but historically the will to remove dictators has been since many African leaders are dictators themselves. But Ghadaffi seems to have lost all his powerful friends in Africa. His family has fled to Algeria, but are not welcome.

Maybe the conflic in Libya will result in a more active AU? If so, then South Africa will most likely take active part. Maybe the mission in Libya will not be the last for Gripen fighters?

Change of plans?

The Turkish Air Force have for long been a user of US aircraft and has been very close to NATO, since entering NATO in 1952.

But this cooperation has not been without problems. Although both Greece and Turkey are part of NATO, the relationship between them have been very tense. In 1974 the Turkish Armed Forces occupied northern Cyprus in a move to stop the Greece military junta to do the same. Cyprus was then for many years Sweden:s largest international military mission. Approximately 25.000 Swedish soldiers and police officers have taken part in the UN-led mission between 1964 and 1993. The ongoing dispute regarding the territorial borders with Greece in the Aegean Sea has not been solved. The financial problems in Greece could have to possible futures. 1 - Greece will reduce the military budget OR 2 - A new military coup could occur with support from the population that has lost trust in their government and in EU.

Turkey is also since 1984 engaged in a low-intensity war against the Kurdish guerrilla, PKK. In 2008 Turkish troops entered Iraq in a campaign to eliminate the Kurdish guerrilla camps located in the Kurd-dominated northern parts of Iraq. Most probably this move was not sanctioned by USA due to the fact that it could destabilize the Kurdish Iraq. This part of Iraq has been a close ally to USA during the Iraq war 2003 onward.

USA and NATO only tolerates the military actions in Iraq due to the importance of Turkey. Turkey is a cultural bridge between the western and the Muslim world, which is very important in the war against terror. The conflicts in northern Africa has made it even more important to have an ally in the region. Turkey also has a geographical strategic position between Europe and the Middle East. But Turkey have a carte blanche from USA/NATO in choosing their methods for how to "win" the war against PKK?

EU also put pressure on Turkey. Before Turkey become a member of EU, the border problems between Turkey and Greece as well as the Kurdish situation must be solved.

Turkey is today very dependent on buying weapons from USA and Europe to fight their war against PKK and at the same time be ready for any possible attacks from Greece (however unlikely they are).

But maybe Turkey has decided to leave the USA-only strategy when it comes to buying fighters for their Air Force? There are ongoing discussions with South Korea as well as Sweden regarding future cooperation in aircraft development.

Turkey has held separate talks with aeronautical officials from South Korea and Sweden for possible cooperation in the design, development and production of a new fighter aircraft in the next decade, a senior procurement official said.

"The companies are South Korea's Korea Aerospace Industries, or KAI, and Sweden's Saab," the official said.

KAI is the manufacturer of several military and civilian aircraft and satellites and is planning to produce the KF-X fighter aircraft. Saab makes the multirole fighter JAS 39 Gripen.
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But Turkish officials privately say they want to develop another future jet fighter with a country other than the United States to reduce Turkey's overdependence on Washington. Most of Turkey's fleet of F-16 fighters, being modernized by Lockheed Martin, and the planned future F-35s are open to U.S. technological influence. Only its older F-4 aircraft, modernized by Israel, and its oldest F-16s, being modernized by Turkey itself, are free from this influence, the officials said. But these older aircraft are expected to be decommissioned around 2020. As part of efforts to select a new fighter, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) has been tasked to determine the specifications of the new fighter by the end of 2012.">But Turkish officials privately say they want to develop another future jet fighter with a country other than the United States to reduce Turkey's overdependence on Washington. Most of Turkey's fleet of F-16 fighters, being modernized by Lockheed Martin, and the planned future F-35s are open to U.S. technological influence. Only its older F-4 aircraft, modernized by Israel, and its oldest F-16s, being modernized by Turkey itself, are free from this influence, the officials said. But these older aircraft are expected to be decommissioned around 2020.

As part of efforts to select a new fighter, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) has been tasked to determine the specifications of the new fighter by the end of 2012.

Turkey late last year held an initial round of talks with KAI on this matter, but the South Koreans offered to share only 20 percent of the project with Turkey, with another 20 percent going to Indonesia while keeping the remaining 60 percent for themselves. Turkey wants an equal share in the development and was quick to reject this offer.

For now the possible cooperation between Korea/Sweden and Turkey will not replace the F-35. But can Turkey afford operating the F-35 at the same time as anything else? Maybe Turkey have to decide between continue to buy american aircraft or have a local aircraft industry?

Turkey has for many years upgraded their aircraft with help from Israel. But after last years incident during the Israeli attack on the Gaza convoy, the diplomatic climate is sub-zero and the Turkish government most probably seek other partners. Since USA is very close to Israel, this could be another explanation to why Turkey want to be more independent from US technology.

What will the Swedish lawmakers say about exporting weapons to Turkey? Is the war against PKK sanctioned by Sweden? EU did put PKK on the terrorist list after 9-11, but what about today? In many Swedish newspapers there are articles regarding the Turkish treatment of the Kurdish people. In Sweden it is by law forbidden to export weapons to a country involved in war. But is the campaign against PKK a "war"? What will he Swedish Anti-War movement say? Any sales of Gripen to Turkey could result in protests in Sweden. These protests could be escalated due to the number of Turkish immigrants living in Sweden.

If Turkey buy the Gripen it could also result in a interesting situation with Swedish-built Saab Gripen in Turkey vs Swedish-built Saab Erieye Command & Control aircraft in Greece. In case of a future conflict between Turkey and Greece it could become a very political sensitive situation for Sweden and Saab to solve.

SvD

Erieye in combat

FAB, the Brazilian Air Force is involved in a low intensity war with drug cartels hiding in the Amazonas djungle. To be able to fight these well armed criminals the Air Force has bought Embraer A-29 "Super Tucano", a COIN - CointerInsurgency capable aircraft.

These aircraft are not only for show, they are operational. Due to the nature of these small wars, there are not many articles in the papers. But now FAB has released a video (se below) and information on a attack on a small airfield in the djungle that FAB suspected was used for smuggling.

Four Super Tucanos attacked the clandestine airstrip, near the border with Colombia, on August 10, dropping eight 230kg bombs, the defense ministry says. Cut from the jungle, the runway was detected from satellite imagery by Brazil's Sivam Amazon surveillance system.

The attacking aircraft were controlled by Embraer R-99 with the Erieye Airborne Command&Control radar. This radar is manufactured by Saab Microwave Mölndal outside of Gothenburg, Sweden. It has been sold to a number of other countries involved in small scale wars.

- Mexico. Erieye is most probably used in the same type of campaigns as in Brazil to detect smuggling across the US-Mexico border.

- Greece. Eriey is used to monitor the border with Turkey and to detect any respassing aircraft. Greeca and Turkey has for for many years been involved in dogfighs with deadly results due to the Aegean conflict.

- Pakistan. Erieye is used to monitor the Kashmir region and stop all border violations by Indian aircraft.

- Thailand. In the south of Thailand there is an ungoing conflict with the muslim minority. In the north of Thailand there is an ongoing fight against the drug smuggling in he same way as for Brazil and Mexico.

Sweden has a policy of not selling weapons to countries involved in war. But what is the definition of "war" today? The classic definition is a war between two countries, but today most wars are internal or against international terrorist organisations.

If Brazil buys the Gripen, maybe it will also be used in the war against the drug smuggling? can Sweden be against these kind of operations? Stopping the drug smuggling must be on every country agenda. But sometimes the methods are rough. In Thailand he former president Thaksin Shinawatra has been accused of murdering many innocent people in the campaign to stop drug smuggling. But in the end, Thaksin also got very good results. Maybe it is in the nature of all wars that innocent people will get killed? In Afghanistan NATO does their best to minimize civilian losses, but still there are mistakes resulting in many afghans getting killed.

The video was released, not only to show that the Brazilian government means business, but also to show USA the capability of the A-29 pending US decision to buy a new LSA - Light Support Aircraft.

Last Aircraft Built in Europe?

Today there are five major military aircraft manufacturers in Europe. Dassault with the Rafale, Eurofighter consortium (EADS, Alenia Aeronautica and BAE Systems) with the Eurofighter and Saab with the Gripen. One or maybe two of these will win the ongoing competitions in Brazil and India. But what about tomorrow? Who will be the survivor of the aircraft "deal of the century"? As of now there is no 5:th generation aircraft planned in Europe. USA has the F-35, Russia/India has the Sukhoi PAK-FA T-50 and China has the J-20, but there is no successor planned for the Eurofighter, Rafale or Gripen.

The lack of money in the European countries has resulted in cut down of the armed forces. The focus on international Afghanistan look-alike missions has resulted in low need for future updated aircraft. What exist today is good enough for most Air Forces. There is no high tech enemy that forces continuous development of the Air Forces. War with Russia, China or India is unlikely. But what countries will in he future but 5:th generation aircraft? What will the threat scenario look like in Africa or Asia in the future? What many politicians often forgets is hat developing a new aircraft takes many years and the next European aircraft will not be designed for the threat scenario of today, but of 2040+

There are also four ongoing major military jet-engine projects in Europe. The Eurofighter EJ200, The Rafale Snecma M88 and the Gripen RM12 (updated F404 license built engine) are built for local aircraft production.

The last engine partly built in Europe is the GE/Rolls Royce F136. It has been questioned in USA due to budget constraints in the F-35 project. But so far it is in production. USA normally want two different engines to an aircraft in order to have some backup if there are technical problems with one type. One extra consideration is of course that USA want the UK defence industry to be happy. I personally do not believe it will be technically possible to swap engines from one type to the other in an aircraft without heavy modification. Rolls Royce also produces the lift-fan for the STOVL F-35B. But since UK has dropped out of this part of the F-35 project and there are still some serious weigh problems with the F-35B, my guess is that the F-35B will be cancelled and the RR lift-fan with it. If both the F136 and he F-35B are cancelled, then Rolls Royce are out of the F-35 project.

Eurofigher
The Eurofighter project have serious financial problems. Tranche 3B has been put on hold. The industry has stated that they will continue with he development of Tranche 3B on their own money, but I doubt that this can continue for very long. By this the Eurofighter has no air to ground capability except for the Royal Air Force Tranche 1 Block 5 - FGR4. There is however an ongoing modification of all Eurofighters. All Tranche 1 will be of Block 5 status and Tranche 2 of Block 8. This will give the Eurofighter air to ground capability. In the Libyan campaign the RAF has mainly used Tornado for air to ground missions. The Italian Air Force were initially using he Eurofighers for CAP - Combat Air Patrol to enforce the NFZ - No Fly Zone, but the Italian Eurofighers have now been withdrawn from the Libyan mission. Germany is not involved in Libya, but has not used the Eurofighters on any international missions. Spain has send F-18 to Libya, but no Eurofighters.

Even though the Eurofighter has been exported to Saudi Arabia (72) and Austria (15), these aircraft were not actually sold by the Eurofigher consortium. The Austrian aircaft were Tranche 1 aircraft from the Luftwaffe. The Saudi Arabia aircraft were Tranche 2B aircraft from the Royal Air Force. As an compensation for the Saudi Arabia deal, the RAF will order 40 Tranche 3A aircraft.

One big problem for Eurofighter is that there are a number of countries involved, which makes it very hard to develop the aircraft.

Read more here about the different Eurofighter Tranche and Blocks.

Dassault
Dassault has yet to find an export customer for the Rafale. In the Indian MMRCA competition, Dassault is together with Eurofighter the last teams left in the competition. In he next phase the Indians will focus on economy and on technology transfer. Even though the Rafale has shown very good results in the Liban campaign compared to the Eurofighter, this should not be used as an decisive factor in the next part of the evaluation.

In the Brazilian evaluation it looked like Sarkozy had a signed contract with former president Lula. But then this evaluation was put on hold, due to bad economy. It will start again next year. The US have stated that they will offer the F-35 together with F-18E/F. Russia will offer the Su-35 and maybe also the PAK-FA T-50. I seriously doubt that the Brazilian economy can handle the F-35 or the PAK-FA, but who knows in these days? Maybe Embraer will get an offer they can not refuse?

In the UAE competition it was earlier stated hat UAE had decided for he F-18E/F, but now Rafale seem to be back in business again.

Even though there has yet been no international business for Rafale, it looks very likely that they will sell some aircraft very soon.

Dassault has very good backup from the French government. In the Brazilian competition there has been rumors that France will support a Brazilian dream of becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Even if there will be no Rafale sold on the international market I believe hat the french pride will make it possible for Dassault to continue to build military aircraft in the future. The French government also has a very good reputation of exporting weapon to any who needs it. Unlike the UK, the french will not buy american fighter aircraft in the first place. But the french economy is like the rest of Europe bleeding. Anything can happen.

Saab
Saab is as of now under delivery of the last Gripen C/D aircraft to South Africa (26 ordered, xx delivered), Thailand (12 ordered, 6 delivered) and update of A/B to C/D aircraft to Sweden (31 ordered, xx delivered). Depending on the yearly production rate this indicate that after approximately 2014 there will be no aircraft built in Linköping unless a new order arrives.

As part of the campaign to sell aircraft to Norway, Saab presented the Gripen NG. This is an update of the existing Gripen C/D with new engine (F414), new avionics, AESA radar, bigger fuselage to allow more internal fuel and two additional weapon pylons under he main fuselage. The Gripen Demo has flown for a number of years with the new engine and has recently been upgraded with hew avionics and AESA radar. But so far no custsomer has bought the aircraft. India has cut Gripen from their competition, Brazil has delayed their campaign with at least one year and the Swedish armed forces has delayed their decision to upgrade the existing Gripen C/D fleet with Gripen E/F based upon the Gripen NG to 2012.

Since the Swedish Air Force and the Swedish politicians has stated that Sweden will operate Gripen to 2040 there is a need to keep the workers at Saab occupied. Otherwise Saab will not have the knowledge and personell to continue to support the Gripen C/D. Most probably this will result in that the Swedish Air Force will 2012 order a slow but continuous update of their existing Gripen C/D to E/F standard.

One reason for the delay with ordering the Gripen NG is that Volvo is lobbying for an updated RM12+ (F404) instead of the F414 engine. This has resulted in that the Swedish politicians want to study what can be done by updating the existing C/D aircraft to C/D+ instead of E/F. In practicality this will result in keeping the existing airframe and updating the avionics. It is unclear if the C/D can carry an AESA radar since this radar requires a larger nose section, more power and cooling.

The new CEO of Saab has however made two major errors during the last six months:

- He has acknowledged that there has been illegal money transacted during the sales of Gripen to South Africa, but he has put all the blame on then-partner BAE. This will result in three problems for Saab. 1 - South Africa has a need to show their voters hat they take this type of accusations very seriously. In the worst case scenario, the deal could be off. In he best case scenario Saab will have very frosty discussions with the South African poiliticians when it comes to future upgrades and continuous operations with Gripen. Since the South African economy is very bad, there is a need for South Africa to decrease the payments to Saab. 2 - Future customers of Gripen might be afraid that their business will be exposed since Saab did not keep their business secrets for themselves. 3 - Future cooperations with other European aircraft manufacturers will be affected. Who wants to work with a partner who sells you out when hings go sour? At this time when there is a need for European cooperation it could be disastrous for Saabs future. The bribes in themselves are not the big problem in this case. In the weapon industry bribes are common. E.g. BAE are accused of bribing Saudi Arabia during the sales of Eurofighter and EADS are accused for bribing South Africa during the sales of A-400M.

- He has ordered a new design bureau to be started in London. The aim of this bureau is to design a carrier version of Gripen, the "Sea Gripen". This is probably a result of the lost deal in India. The Indian deal said nothing about carrier capability, but India has carriers and in the future it migh be the case that they want a replacement for the existing Mig-29. Rafale has already a carrier version and Eurofigher has started up design works for a carrier version. (Maybe the Eurofigher will also be used on the new Queen Elisabeth carrier since it has been redesigned to be used with F-35C instead of F-35B?). In the case of the Gripen I think this will just be wasted money. To qualify an aircraft for carrier operations means more than just a tail-hook and stronger under-carriage.

What should Saab do?

The Gripen has one very big advantage considering the bad economy in the world. It is cheaper to buy and much cheaper to operate compared to the competitors. But in he same way as for Rafale, Eurofighter and F-35 there has been a gradual change in requirements from a lightweight fighter to a multi-role fighter capable of everything. Instead of trying to compete with the others, which will probably result in a better but also more expensive version of the Gripen, do the other way around. Make it cheaper! Be the F-5/F-16 of the 21:st century instead of the F-35. Focus on what Saab always has done well and that is indigenous solutions. I would for example want to see close integration of he Gripen with UAV. Use UAV as remote sensors for the Gripen. What about a clustered radar or electronic warfare system using a number of small UAV? Send in a UAV to identify argets at long distance and then fire precision weapons lead by the UAV. Use he backseat of a Gripen D to control the UAV. Saab has in their business portfolio the Skeldar UAV which is a very good solution for future CAS operations. Use the Skeldar as a tool for the FAC to lead attacks with the Gripen.

Saabs weakness is the lack of support from the Swedish government. The buzzword when it comes to military equipment is to buy COTS from the international market to reduce the cost. Local development should be avoided unless there are no other alternatives. The Swedish press is also very negative to weapon manufacturing in Sweden, which of course affects the political will. In Sweden export of military equipment is by law forbidden. Each business case has to be approved by the Swedish government export control office. This might stop some customers since they fear the Swedish politicians will stop supporting the Gripen if they are used in a conflict that Sweden does not agree with. During the international sales of the Gripen there has for many years been very low involvement by the politicians. But lately in the Brazilian campaign the interest has increased. Maybe the Swedish politicians has understood the need for political backup. Unless Saab finds some more international sales, the Swedish Air Force has to finance all future development of the Gripen by themselves.

The future
EDA - European Defence Agency has started FAS4Europe, a study to list key aircraft technology companies in Europe 3035+.

The objective of the study is to identify the key industrial capabilities together with a proposed implementation plan.

Most European countries of course want that their local aircraft manufacturer will be among the selected ones 2035+. The tricky part of assembling the list of possible manufacturers in 2035 is to decide who will not be on the list any more.

Is there a European budget big enough to continue with five major (and a number of smaller) aircraft manufacturers in he future? I believe not. But it will be a big fight to see which country that stop supporting their local aircraft manufacturer first. Probably the next European joint project will be a UAV. The Neuron project is a starting point. BAE (Taranis), EADS (Talarion), Saab (Skeldar) all have their own UAV projects ongoing, but in order to prepare the way for a future aircraft I believe the best way to start is with the UAV.

However Europe has already started to use American UAV system. Sweden just bought the Shadow 200, Germany the Euro Hawk (a European version of the US Global Hawk) and Raptor and UK and Italy bought the Reaper. The competition in the UAV market is tough. And there are a lot of smaller industries that do not build aircraft that see business opportunities. A big drawback for the aircraft manufacturers is that they are mostly to expensive to buy from.

The next step is to arrange with a consortium as for the Eurofighter, including Saab and Dassault. It is not an easy solution. The Tornado and the Eurofighter projects have not always been smooth rides. The local industries will manufacture their own specialties to all buyers and the also do final assembly of whatever number of aircraft each country order.

The alternative is of course to buy a American, Russian or Chinese aircraft and then let the local industries deliver parts of the aircraft and do final assembly. Much in the same way as for the F-16/F-18 today. The F-35 will have major parts built in UK, but all final assembly will be done in the US.

Lockheed Martin is the F-35 prime contractor, while Northrop Grumman and BAE Systems are principal partners in the project.

Final assembly of the F-35 takes place at Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company in Fort Worth, Texas. Northrop Grumman Corporation in Palmdale and El Segundo, California will manufacture the center-fuselage, and the aft fuselage and tails will be manufactured by BAE Systems in Samlesbury, England. Lockheed Martin in Fort Worth will manufacture the forward fuselage and wings.

What is best for the European aircraft manufacturers. To build parts of many aircraft or the whole of just a few?

There are many questions. But one thing is clear. If the European defence industries does not cooperate very soon, there will be very little left of them in 2035+.

Thai Gripen Operational

Today RTAF - Royal Thai Air Force declared the Gripen fighter and the Saab 340 AEW operational.

RTAF now have 10 Gripen pilots and 30 technicians that have been trained in Sweden. They have also undergone CRT - Combat Readiness Training in Thailand with support of the Swedish Air Force Support Group at Wing 7. More pilots will be trained in Thailand. These pilots and technicians will form the core of the first Gripen squadron and maintenance unit. Since the Gripen is much less demanding when it comes to maintenance compared to F-5/F-16, RTAF is now fully prepared to operate the Gripen.

But how does the future for the Gripen in Thailand look like?

In a comment on the Swedish Air Force blogg, the Gripen News Thread believed in more good news in Thailand and hinted about "ADF". The only ADF-related thing that I could find using Google and the search parameters "thai air force ADF" was the RTAF F-16.

The first 12 Gripen that has been ordered by RTAF will replace the old F-5 at Wing 7 Surat Thani. The first 6 Gripen has already been delivered and the next 6 will be delivered in 2013. But what will happen with RTAF F-16? The F-16 used in RTAF are old Block 15 F-16A/B. They have recently been modernized in order to keep them flying a few years more. But maybe there are ongoing negotiations about replacing them with more Gripen fighters?

RTAF has approximately 30 x F-5 and 57 x F-16. 18 of the F-16 are undergoing structural upgrade program to prolong their life length to 2025. To replace the F-5 there is a possibility that RTAF will buy 18 more Gripen. If the oldest F-16 will be replaced, this could possible result in as many as 39 more Gripen, in total a possible contract for 57 Gripen and more in 2025. The new Prime Minister in Thailand has promised increase in economical support for the poor people of the population i Thailand, so most probably this will result in that the Armed Forces will not get as much money as they want. On the other hand I suspect that the Prime Minister want the support of the military commanders in order not to repeat her fathers fate, so maybe the reduction in the military budget will not be as big as it could have been.

My guess is that RTAF will replace at least one squadron of F-16 with 18 Gripen and buy 6 more to Wing 7. Then in 2025 RTAF will probably buy a further 18 to replace the last F-16 squadron. 42 more Gripen for Saab to sell to Thailand will be a good boost in the economy while they wait to see what happens with the future for Gripen E/F.

DefencePro, Flight Global
Expr, DN, SvD1, SvD2

Austrian Upgrades

The Austrian Air Force will soon receive their first upgraded Eurofighter. Austria bought second hand Tranche 1 Eurofighters from Germany. It was a big surprise for Saab who thought the deal was almost signed with Austria to buy the Swedish Gripen.

Maybe Saab was too confident to get the deal? Austria has a long tradition of buying Swedish Aircraft. Both countries were neutral after WW2. Saab B-17A, Saab J-29F "Flying Barrel", Saab J-35O "Dragon", Saab 105Oe (still in service) and Saab 91D Safir has been part of the Österreichische Luftstreitkräfte inventory. Maybe not always the most powerful aircraft, but the Austrian Air Force was not allowed to have any other weapons on their aircraft but guns according to a treaty with the Soviet Union signed at the end of WWII. But after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989 there was new possibilities. When the war in former Yugoslavia started in 1991, the Austrian government felt threatened and decided to upgrade their J 35 with Sidewinder missiles and more modern avionics.

In order to prepare for the planned Gripen, Austrian pilots flew the Saab JA 37 "Thunderbolt" at F21 in Luleå for a number of years between 1999 and 2002. Since all Austrian pilots have been trained at F10 Wing in Ängelholm in Sweden, some of them were still speaking basic Swedish. Then in 2003 the Austrians choose the Eurofighter because it was cheaper than the competitors.

The eventually negotiated price for 18 EADS Typhoons is EUR 1,959 billion, including all system- and support costs, and the financing of 18 half-year payments from 2007 onwards. The offer for Gripen was only between 3 and 4% cheaper in cash and 5-year payment, and not much more even in the targeted 9-year payment. This is nothing near being acceptable for an aircraft with 30-40% less capability in climb-rate (important for small airspaces), radar, processing-reserves etc.

Most aircraft deals have rumors about bribes and this one is no exception. But there has been no proofs. Clearly the price/performance was a decisive factor, but they also got the oldest Eurofighters that Germany did not want to operate (compare Tranche 1 with the problems Germany had with their newer Eurofighters in the Baltic QRA). Most probably they got a costly deal regarding maintenance. As I understood the 2003 deal was with Germany, not directly with EADS. This new deal is with EADS and will probably lower the maintenance costs.

The Eurofighter has not been very successful in Austria. The Tranche 1 is a very basic aircraft with mainly air-to-air capability. This might not be a big problem for Austria since they mainly use their Air Force for defensive homeland protection with focus on QRA - Quick Reaction Alert. What is worse however is that the flight hour production is very expensive and the MTBF is also too low. The result is that their pilots are not flying very much and they have also few trained pilots. If some of the pilots would leave for civilian airlines it could result in that the Air Force is almost wiped out of existence.

Budget constraints mean the fleet is restricted to 1,200-1,300h annually, although Stadlhofer said this is to rise to 1,500h by 2015. Each of Austria's 14 Typhoon pilots flies an average of 70-80h per year, while another two are being trained.

Did the Austrians get a good deal in the end? Well, compare the introduction of Eurofighter in Austria with Gripen in the Czech Republic:

- Austria: Contract signed 2003, first delivery in 2006, final delivery (out of 15 a/c) in 2009. Flight time production up until 2011 is 3200 fh.

- Czech Republic. Contract signed in 2003, first delivery in 2005, final delivery (out of 14 a/c) in 2005. Flight time production up until 2010 was more than 10.000 fh.

In Sweden there is a saying, "What you don´t get as income from the swing you will get from the carousel". Austria got their Eurofighter at a bargain price, but they are now paying more to get full tactical functionality and they are also paying a lot in operating cost. The total cost of an aircraft is always = acquisition price + upgrades during life time + yearly cost * life length.

Thai Election Affects Sweden?

In Thailand Yingluck Shinawatra will be the winner of the general election.

With most votes counted, outgoing Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has conceded victory to his rival, opposition leader Yingluck Shinawatra.

Ms Yingluck, who will become Thailand's first female prime minister, said there was "a lot of hard work ahead".

She is the younger sister of Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted in a coup in 2006.

With 92% of votes counted, Ms Yingluck's Pheu Thai party had won 260 seats, giving it a majority in the 500-seat parliament.

What will happen now?

Most probably the military leaders are very disappointed. The election results clearly shows that the people of Thailand did not approve with the coup in 2006. The red-shirts have protested every year and now they will be in power. My guess is that Thaksin will be giving a lot of "advices" to his sister, even though he will wait a while before returning to Thailand. He will not formally be in power, but he will have a lot to say about the future politics of Thailand.

The big question however is if the military will accept the will of the people? A new coup could lead to civil war. many investors fear the worst and the Thai economy has dropped.

Inflation is nudging higher (to 4.2% in May), and both leading parties have promised a rack of give-aways, from higher wages to credit cards.

The Bank of Thailand said foreign investors had withdrawn 57bn baht ($1.85bn; £1.15bn) from the Thai debt market last month and 17bn baht from the stock market. The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) shed 74bn baht of its value in May.

A new coup in Thailand will affect Sweden in many ways.

- Thailand is the biggest vacation spot in the world for Swedes. Many Swedes also choose Thailand to live in during the cold Swedish winters when they retire at age 65. A coup could lead to a need of transporting a lot of Swedes back to home. Sweden remembers the challenge of transporting people from Thailand after the Tsunami in 2004. In 2004 Sweden had to rely on civilian airline companies. Today Sweden has access to three C-17 through the NATO HAW - Heavy Airlift Wing in Papa, Hungary.

- Swedish companies have invested a lot in the Thai tourism, hotels, airline companies etc. If there would be a new coup it will be very costly for these companies. This could affect the economy in Sweden and also the unemployment figures in the tourism sector. Maybe the tourists would stay in Sweden instead and spend their money. But since Thailand is mostly visited during the Swedish winter they will probably go to another warm country.

- Sweden has sold Gripen fighters to RTAF, the Royal Thai Air Force. 6+6 Gripen aircraft + 2 Saab 340 AEW and 1 Saab 340 transport aircraft together with upgrades of the Thai Command & Control networks are in the contract. A Swedish support unit are currently located at Wing 7 at the town of Surat Thani in southern Thailand. If there is a coup will the Swedish personnel be able to stay? How will Sweden support the Thai Air Force with spares and maintenance of the aircraft? Will there be any further contracts for more aircraft? The contract was signed in 2007, i.e. after the 2006 coup. Therefore a new government with ties to Thaksin could very well change the future for the Thai Air Force. The new government has promised a lot of economical support to the population. This money need to be raised somewhere.

Since Thailand is very depending on the tourism I believe that everyone will be very careful not to do anything that will affect the tourism. But who controls the red- and the yellow-shirts?

I hope that the Swedish foreign ministry is closely looking into the development in Thailand. Since there are a lot of Swedish interests in Thailand, Sweden must be prepared to act if a new coupe would take place.

But on the other hand, as BBC already has noted:

It is precisely Thailand's record of mishaps - in its 78 years of democracy it has survived 18 attempted or actual military coups and new constitutions - that gives the long-stayers a kind of confidence.

SvD1, SvD2, SvD3, DN

Tomorrow Brazil and India, Today Sweden

Selling combat aircraft is a work like no other. The decisions of nations on which aircraft to buy has nothing to do with strategy or even finances. Politics is the most important factor!

In India Saab is supposed to be out of the competition, or are they? No one really knows for sure. According to official press releases India will go forward with Eurofighter and Rafale, but Lockheed Martin has objected and most probably the decision will wait for a while.

In Brazil the FX-2 competition seems to be at a stand-still. And out of the ashes comes FX-3! Brazil want a new competition, but this time they will also make room for the 5:th generation of aircraft. F-35 and PAK-FA T-50 will probably be invited.

For this increase to 36 fighters, there would be "Chavez Factor" with their purchases of armaments on a large scale and attraction of the Cold War to the American South, "Chavez Factor" showed to Brazilian society that it does not have the height of Defense country for decades.
...
This purchase of the FX-2 could be far higher, because the original FX aimed assembly in Brazil, under license, in a next phase, 84 aircraft model has perfected the first choice, coming to total 120 aircraft interception. Only Chavez plans to reach 150 Su-30 and Su-35BM for its Venezuela. An acquisition is not less than this would cause local assembly or could count on full transfer of technology. Even 120 units produced under license does not guarantee transfer of technology obsolescence.

In Sweden the Minister of Defence will wait for another year before deciding on the future for the Gripan fleet in the Swedish Air Force. Will it be an updated Gripen C/D+ with new avionics or will it be a Gripen E/F with a new fuselage with room for more fuel, weapons, a bigger AESA radar and the F414 engine? Unfortunately for Saab Volvo is together with some high ranking FMV officials doing their best to stop the Gripen E/F in favor for the Swedish license made RM12+ upgrade. No one has yet asked General electric about how they will handle Volvo when it comes to competing a license made RM12 against General Electric F414. RM12+ will also be the end of the line for the F414 design. If Sweden in the future want more thrust it will need to be another engine instead of just upgrades.

But, during this waiting period there is still a lot of work ongoing at Saab.

FMV has recently announced a 1034 MSEK order on upgrades to the Gripen C/D fleet. This will ensure the work at Saab AB in Linköping, Kista, Mölndahl and Järfälla.

Do not forget that there are a number of existing customers who are operating the Gripen. 16 aircraft in South Africa, 14 in the Czech Republic, 14 in Hungary, 12 (so far) in Thailand and more than 100 in Sweden. There are also a number of countries that can not afford aircraft like the F-35 and ar very interested in a cheaper aircraft like the Gripen C/D. This is were the money for Saab is today.

This is something that is easily forgotten in the debate about Gripen E/F or not. The Swedish government has already decided to operate the Gripen until 2040. During these years there will be a need for continuous development of the aircraft. Sooner or later this will result in a major upgrade of the aircraft. Either by a number of smaller upgrades or by a major MLU - Mid Life Update.

There is of course the option of doing nothing at all. But this leaves two possible futures. Either there will be no Swedish Air Force at all or the Swedish Air Force need to replace their existing Gripen C/D with F-35 or a similar alternative starting somewhere around 2025. Will this alternative be cheaper? Ask the Norwegians!

SR

The Two Saab

All is quiet in Trollhättan. No Saab automobiles are being build. No salaries are paid to the workers. Now everyone is waiting for financial support from China.

The problem is that there are two Saabs with the same company name and very confusing logotypes that easily can be mixed up. When I speak to people in other countries they often ask me if the manufacturer of Gripen will be bankrupt soon. What they don´t understand is that the aircraft and the automobile manufacturer are not the same company any more. The Saab automobile museum give us some clues to that there are more than one user of the Gripen logo.

Aircraft manufacturer

In the beginning it was only the aircraft manufacturer Saab in Linköping. It was founded in 1937 as Svenska Aeroflygplan AB. In 1965 the name was changed to Saab AB. In 1967 Saab was merged with Scania-Vabis and the name of the company was changed to Saab-Scania AB.

The first Saab logo was with their first manufactured aircraft, the Saab B 17 dive-bomber. The second logo that was used for a long time on all cars was with their twin engined Saab B 18 Bomber.

Today Saab AB uses a very similar logo to Saab Automobile with the head of the Gripen in the center. This has nothing to do with the Gripen aircraft.

The symbol was introduced in 1984 and was the symbol for the then Saab-Scania group. This is the first Saab logo to reintroduce the head of the mythical Gripen, or Griffin, first seen on the AB Scania-Vabis logo.

Saab Automobile AB introduced the new corporate symbol of the red Gripen head and gold crown with the name SAAB in silver beneath it all contained within a blue roundel.

The heraldic Griffin's head - derived from the coats of arms of the Skåne and Östergotland counties in southern Sweden traditionally symbolizes vigilance.

This logo was officially introduced on 14th August 2000, just months after the complete takeover of Saab Automobile AB by General Motors.

Saab say that the corporate symbol "...has now been refined to reflect more clearly the strengthening brand name and a model range which is the most competitive ever produced by Saab."

Automobile manufacturer

After the second world war the Swedish government wanted that Saab manufactured other things besides aircraft in order to be a more financial stable company. The first car prototype was shown in 1947. In 1949 Saab started to manufacture cars in Trollhättan. In 1990 Saab Automobile was separated from the aircraft manufacturer and half of the company was sold to GM - General Motors. At the same time Scania was made into a separate company within the Wallenberg Investor industrial sphere. However Saab Automobile still used a lot of branding from the aircraft industry and a lot of the car commercials showed Saab aircraft. The owner Wallenberg wanted that the car industry kept the high-tech image from the aircraft industry. In 2000 GM bought the rest of the stocks in Saab Automobile. Even after this sell-out Saab automobile still kept using the aircraft industry connections in their commercials.

In December 2009 GM decides to close down Saab. The company is bought by the dutch car manufacturer Spyker in January 2010. 6 April 2011 the production stops at at Saab due to financial problems. The Chinese company Hawtai buys stocks in Spyker. 15 June 2011 Spyker change name to Swedish Automobiles and sold the Spyker car plant to CPP Global Holdings.

Unfortunately there is today not much left of the well known Saab Automobile brand with driving legends like Erik "Carlsson på taket". Saab even had a short time in formula racing.

Saab future
Unfortunately the dying Saab Automobile are dragging the other Saab companies into the dark and deep pits of bad brands. My recommendation would be to be very careful when talking about Saab and distinguish between the two companies by using the full names "Saab Automobile" and "Saab AB" that is divided in a number of sub-companies among them "Saab Aeronautics" that manufactures the Gripen aircraft. And if I were in charge of selling Saab Automobile I would not let the brand "Saab", now sold to China, to be used for second class cars



Note the Gripen aircraft on the display behind the car in the video above. Note also how Saab Automobile President Jan-Åke Jonsson uses the word "pilots" to connect the car design to aircraft design.

Saab AB lawyers has stated that the Saab brand can not be sold separately to any buyer without buying he entire automobile manufacturer. This is regulated in a contract between Saab AB, Saab Automobile and Scania.

It will be very difficult to think about quality in the future when one hear the name Saab. Maybe it is to late to save the brand Saab? Maybe Saab AB (or Saabgroup) should be renamed to Saab Defence to distinguish it more from Saab Automobile? "Release me" is maybe still a campaign that should be used by Saab to release the Saab logo and Saab brand from the Chinese?



These commercials clearly show the link between the car manufacturer Saab Automobile and the aircraft industry. Saab Automobile has always used their connection to the aircraft manufacturer Saab AB as a quality mark.





Lastly an "oldie, but goodie" from the historical archives. The Saab stunt group was used in the same way as aerobatic display teams to sell the Saab car brand.



Read more in "SAAB Aircraft since 1937" by Hans G Andersson, ISBN 0-85177-886-0.

Interesting articles about the Saab logos here, here and here.

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