Thai Gripen Operational

Today RTAF - Royal Thai Air Force declared the Gripen fighter and the Saab 340 AEW operational.

RTAF now have 10 Gripen pilots and 30 technicians that have been trained in Sweden. They have also undergone CRT - Combat Readiness Training in Thailand with support of the Swedish Air Force Support Group at Wing 7. More pilots will be trained in Thailand. These pilots and technicians will form the core of the first Gripen squadron and maintenance unit. Since the Gripen is much less demanding when it comes to maintenance compared to F-5/F-16, RTAF is now fully prepared to operate the Gripen.

But how does the future for the Gripen in Thailand look like?

In a comment on the Swedish Air Force blogg, the Gripen News Thread believed in more good news in Thailand and hinted about "ADF". The only ADF-related thing that I could find using Google and the search parameters "thai air force ADF" was the RTAF F-16.

The first 12 Gripen that has been ordered by RTAF will replace the old F-5 at Wing 7 Surat Thani. The first 6 Gripen has already been delivered and the next 6 will be delivered in 2013. But what will happen with RTAF F-16? The F-16 used in RTAF are old Block 15 F-16A/B. They have recently been modernized in order to keep them flying a few years more. But maybe there are ongoing negotiations about replacing them with more Gripen fighters?

RTAF has approximately 30 x F-5 and 57 x F-16. 18 of the F-16 are undergoing structural upgrade program to prolong their life length to 2025. To replace the F-5 there is a possibility that RTAF will buy 18 more Gripen. If the oldest F-16 will be replaced, this could possible result in as many as 39 more Gripen, in total a possible contract for 57 Gripen and more in 2025. The new Prime Minister in Thailand has promised increase in economical support for the poor people of the population i Thailand, so most probably this will result in that the Armed Forces will not get as much money as they want. On the other hand I suspect that the Prime Minister want the support of the military commanders in order not to repeat her fathers fate, so maybe the reduction in the military budget will not be as big as it could have been.

My guess is that RTAF will replace at least one squadron of F-16 with 18 Gripen and buy 6 more to Wing 7. Then in 2025 RTAF will probably buy a further 18 to replace the last F-16 squadron. 42 more Gripen for Saab to sell to Thailand will be a good boost in the economy while they wait to see what happens with the future for Gripen E/F.

DefencePro, Flight Global
Expr, DN, SvD1, SvD2

Austrian Upgrades

The Austrian Air Force will soon receive their first upgraded Eurofighter. Austria bought second hand Tranche 1 Eurofighters from Germany. It was a big surprise for Saab who thought the deal was almost signed with Austria to buy the Swedish Gripen.

Maybe Saab was too confident to get the deal? Austria has a long tradition of buying Swedish Aircraft. Both countries were neutral after WW2. Saab B-17A, Saab J-29F "Flying Barrel", Saab J-35O "Dragon", Saab 105Oe (still in service) and Saab 91D Safir has been part of the Österreichische Luftstreitkräfte inventory. Maybe not always the most powerful aircraft, but the Austrian Air Force was not allowed to have any other weapons on their aircraft but guns according to a treaty with the Soviet Union signed at the end of WWII. But after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989 there was new possibilities. When the war in former Yugoslavia started in 1991, the Austrian government felt threatened and decided to upgrade their J 35 with Sidewinder missiles and more modern avionics.

In order to prepare for the planned Gripen, Austrian pilots flew the Saab JA 37 "Thunderbolt" at F21 in Luleå for a number of years between 1999 and 2002. Since all Austrian pilots have been trained at F10 Wing in Ängelholm in Sweden, some of them were still speaking basic Swedish. Then in 2003 the Austrians choose the Eurofighter because it was cheaper than the competitors.

The eventually negotiated price for 18 EADS Typhoons is EUR 1,959 billion, including all system- and support costs, and the financing of 18 half-year payments from 2007 onwards. The offer for Gripen was only between 3 and 4% cheaper in cash and 5-year payment, and not much more even in the targeted 9-year payment. This is nothing near being acceptable for an aircraft with 30-40% less capability in climb-rate (important for small airspaces), radar, processing-reserves etc.

Most aircraft deals have rumors about bribes and this one is no exception. But there has been no proofs. Clearly the price/performance was a decisive factor, but they also got the oldest Eurofighters that Germany did not want to operate (compare Tranche 1 with the problems Germany had with their newer Eurofighters in the Baltic QRA). Most probably they got a costly deal regarding maintenance. As I understood the 2003 deal was with Germany, not directly with EADS. This new deal is with EADS and will probably lower the maintenance costs.

The Eurofighter has not been very successful in Austria. The Tranche 1 is a very basic aircraft with mainly air-to-air capability. This might not be a big problem for Austria since they mainly use their Air Force for defensive homeland protection with focus on QRA - Quick Reaction Alert. What is worse however is that the flight hour production is very expensive and the MTBF is also too low. The result is that their pilots are not flying very much and they have also few trained pilots. If some of the pilots would leave for civilian airlines it could result in that the Air Force is almost wiped out of existence.

Budget constraints mean the fleet is restricted to 1,200-1,300h annually, although Stadlhofer said this is to rise to 1,500h by 2015. Each of Austria's 14 Typhoon pilots flies an average of 70-80h per year, while another two are being trained.

Did the Austrians get a good deal in the end? Well, compare the introduction of Eurofighter in Austria with Gripen in the Czech Republic:

- Austria: Contract signed 2003, first delivery in 2006, final delivery (out of 15 a/c) in 2009. Flight time production up until 2011 is 3200 fh.

- Czech Republic. Contract signed in 2003, first delivery in 2005, final delivery (out of 14 a/c) in 2005. Flight time production up until 2010 was more than 10.000 fh.

In Sweden there is a saying, "What you don´t get as income from the swing you will get from the carousel". Austria got their Eurofighter at a bargain price, but they are now paying more to get full tactical functionality and they are also paying a lot in operating cost. The total cost of an aircraft is always = acquisition price + upgrades during life time + yearly cost * life length.

Time For Delivery?

The first Dutch F-35 is now under assembly at the Northrop plant.

Northrop Grumman has completed the centre fuselage for the Netherlands' first F-35A Lightning II,
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It will then be integrated with the other major sections for the conventional take-off and landing aircraft: its Lockheed-produced forward fuselage, cockpit and wings; and BAE Systems-built rear fuselage.

The Dutch has ordered two F-35 to start with. These test aircraft will be used for training the first cadre of instructors. Norway are planning to buy four test aircraft to do the same. UK has bought three test aircraft and the first UK pilot has already flown the F-35B (even though as it looks right now UK will buy the F-35C conventional carrier version). Outside of the US these are the only F-35 that has actually been bought yet! The rest are just on the "to-be-decided"-list.

Some countries has not even decided which configuration of the F-35 they will buy. UK is choosing between F-35B/C. Canada is planning to buy the CF-35 with drag chute and drogue AAR refueling (there are ongoing discussions in the Canadian government regarding ordering a special version of the F-35, since it will be very costly for the Canadians). The drag chute is for landing on icy runways. Note: Norway might also be interested in this version of the F-35.

One thing that has not yet been decided, or at least not been made public, is the final export configuration of the F-35. There has been rumors about the stealth capability being less effective on the export version and that not all of the jamming capability will exported. Maybe this problem will be automatically solved if the US does not have money enough to finish the development of these capabilities.

Many F-35 customer are now facing problems with the non-existing time overlap between the last day of operations with their existing fleet of aircraft and the introduction of the F-35. E.g. the Norwegian F-16MLU and the Canadian CF-18 will probably be grounded for good before the first flight of the F-35 in their respective Air Forces. Maybe this will result in that some countries need to buy another aircraft. My guess is that the F-15SE and the F-18E/F will find customers among countries that today are on the F-35 interest list.

How effective will the F-35 be? RAND Corporation has done a simulation of F-35 and F-18E/F versus Su-30 for the Australian Air Force with some bad news for the F-35.

The clear implication of the RAND study is that the F-35 is very likely to wind up facing many more “up close and personal” opponents than its proponents suggest, while dealing with beyond-visual-range infrared-guided missiles as an added complication. Unlike the F-22, the F-35 is described as “double inferior” to modern SU-30 family fighters within visual range combat; thrust and wing loading issues are noted, all summed up in one RAND background slide as “can’t [out]turn, can’t [out]climb, can’t [out]run.”

Worst of all is that the price tag of the F-35 keeps going up. In combination with the bad European economy it will of course affect how many aircraft that will be bought.

But, instead of the poor European customers there are other potential markets coming up. President Obama has given go-ahead to Lockheed Martin to offer F-35 to India. In the FX-3 program in Brazil, F-35 will most probably be an contender. Israel is very interested after Saudi Arabia decided to buy Eurofighters and F-15E.

Finally I recommend this documentary about the F-35.

Thai Election Affects Sweden?

In Thailand Yingluck Shinawatra will be the winner of the general election.

With most votes counted, outgoing Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has conceded victory to his rival, opposition leader Yingluck Shinawatra.

Ms Yingluck, who will become Thailand's first female prime minister, said there was "a lot of hard work ahead".

She is the younger sister of Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted in a coup in 2006.

With 92% of votes counted, Ms Yingluck's Pheu Thai party had won 260 seats, giving it a majority in the 500-seat parliament.

What will happen now?

Most probably the military leaders are very disappointed. The election results clearly shows that the people of Thailand did not approve with the coup in 2006. The red-shirts have protested every year and now they will be in power. My guess is that Thaksin will be giving a lot of "advices" to his sister, even though he will wait a while before returning to Thailand. He will not formally be in power, but he will have a lot to say about the future politics of Thailand.

The big question however is if the military will accept the will of the people? A new coup could lead to civil war. many investors fear the worst and the Thai economy has dropped.

Inflation is nudging higher (to 4.2% in May), and both leading parties have promised a rack of give-aways, from higher wages to credit cards.

The Bank of Thailand said foreign investors had withdrawn 57bn baht ($1.85bn; £1.15bn) from the Thai debt market last month and 17bn baht from the stock market. The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) shed 74bn baht of its value in May.

A new coup in Thailand will affect Sweden in many ways.

- Thailand is the biggest vacation spot in the world for Swedes. Many Swedes also choose Thailand to live in during the cold Swedish winters when they retire at age 65. A coup could lead to a need of transporting a lot of Swedes back to home. Sweden remembers the challenge of transporting people from Thailand after the Tsunami in 2004. In 2004 Sweden had to rely on civilian airline companies. Today Sweden has access to three C-17 through the NATO HAW - Heavy Airlift Wing in Papa, Hungary.

- Swedish companies have invested a lot in the Thai tourism, hotels, airline companies etc. If there would be a new coup it will be very costly for these companies. This could affect the economy in Sweden and also the unemployment figures in the tourism sector. Maybe the tourists would stay in Sweden instead and spend their money. But since Thailand is mostly visited during the Swedish winter they will probably go to another warm country.

- Sweden has sold Gripen fighters to RTAF, the Royal Thai Air Force. 6+6 Gripen aircraft + 2 Saab 340 AEW and 1 Saab 340 transport aircraft together with upgrades of the Thai Command & Control networks are in the contract. A Swedish support unit are currently located at Wing 7 at the town of Surat Thani in southern Thailand. If there is a coup will the Swedish personnel be able to stay? How will Sweden support the Thai Air Force with spares and maintenance of the aircraft? Will there be any further contracts for more aircraft? The contract was signed in 2007, i.e. after the 2006 coup. Therefore a new government with ties to Thaksin could very well change the future for the Thai Air Force. The new government has promised a lot of economical support to the population. This money need to be raised somewhere.

Since Thailand is very depending on the tourism I believe that everyone will be very careful not to do anything that will affect the tourism. But who controls the red- and the yellow-shirts?

I hope that the Swedish foreign ministry is closely looking into the development in Thailand. Since there are a lot of Swedish interests in Thailand, Sweden must be prepared to act if a new coupe would take place.

But on the other hand, as BBC already has noted:

It is precisely Thailand's record of mishaps - in its 78 years of democracy it has survived 18 attempted or actual military coups and new constitutions - that gives the long-stayers a kind of confidence.

SvD1, SvD2, SvD3, DN

Tomorrow Brazil and India, Today Sweden

Selling combat aircraft is a work like no other. The decisions of nations on which aircraft to buy has nothing to do with strategy or even finances. Politics is the most important factor!

In India Saab is supposed to be out of the competition, or are they? No one really knows for sure. According to official press releases India will go forward with Eurofighter and Rafale, but Lockheed Martin has objected and most probably the decision will wait for a while.

In Brazil the FX-2 competition seems to be at a stand-still. And out of the ashes comes FX-3! Brazil want a new competition, but this time they will also make room for the 5:th generation of aircraft. F-35 and PAK-FA T-50 will probably be invited.

For this increase to 36 fighters, there would be "Chavez Factor" with their purchases of armaments on a large scale and attraction of the Cold War to the American South, "Chavez Factor" showed to Brazilian society that it does not have the height of Defense country for decades.
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This purchase of the FX-2 could be far higher, because the original FX aimed assembly in Brazil, under license, in a next phase, 84 aircraft model has perfected the first choice, coming to total 120 aircraft interception. Only Chavez plans to reach 150 Su-30 and Su-35BM for its Venezuela. An acquisition is not less than this would cause local assembly or could count on full transfer of technology. Even 120 units produced under license does not guarantee transfer of technology obsolescence.

In Sweden the Minister of Defence will wait for another year before deciding on the future for the Gripan fleet in the Swedish Air Force. Will it be an updated Gripen C/D+ with new avionics or will it be a Gripen E/F with a new fuselage with room for more fuel, weapons, a bigger AESA radar and the F414 engine? Unfortunately for Saab Volvo is together with some high ranking FMV officials doing their best to stop the Gripen E/F in favor for the Swedish license made RM12+ upgrade. No one has yet asked General electric about how they will handle Volvo when it comes to competing a license made RM12 against General Electric F414. RM12+ will also be the end of the line for the F414 design. If Sweden in the future want more thrust it will need to be another engine instead of just upgrades.

But, during this waiting period there is still a lot of work ongoing at Saab.

FMV has recently announced a 1034 MSEK order on upgrades to the Gripen C/D fleet. This will ensure the work at Saab AB in Linköping, Kista, Mölndahl and Järfälla.

Do not forget that there are a number of existing customers who are operating the Gripen. 16 aircraft in South Africa, 14 in the Czech Republic, 14 in Hungary, 12 (so far) in Thailand and more than 100 in Sweden. There are also a number of countries that can not afford aircraft like the F-35 and ar very interested in a cheaper aircraft like the Gripen C/D. This is were the money for Saab is today.

This is something that is easily forgotten in the debate about Gripen E/F or not. The Swedish government has already decided to operate the Gripen until 2040. During these years there will be a need for continuous development of the aircraft. Sooner or later this will result in a major upgrade of the aircraft. Either by a number of smaller upgrades or by a major MLU - Mid Life Update.

There is of course the option of doing nothing at all. But this leaves two possible futures. Either there will be no Swedish Air Force at all or the Swedish Air Force need to replace their existing Gripen C/D with F-35 or a similar alternative starting somewhere around 2025. Will this alternative be cheaper? Ask the Norwegians!

SR

Good Moral, Bad Physique

The Swedish Defence expert, Prof. Wilhelm Agrell has written an interesting article in yesterday SvD about the pro and cons of the reformed system for employing professional soldiers in the Swedish Armed Forces. His thesis is that Sweden is more vulnerable without the conscript system. The new defence will be much smaller and the soldiers will lack the civilian experience that has shown to be very valuable on international missions. Swedish soldiers has always been more than just soldiers which is very useful in operations other than war. They performed well in the civil wars of former Yugoslavia and has so far also done well in Afghanistan. However the Supreme Commander and the Minister of Defence, Mr Tolgfors, both say that the old system was too costly since all units that was sent on international missions had to be trained for that specific mission and afterwards the unit was disassembled and the soldiers went back to their civilian work.

But was this so bad? The civilian and the military world in Sweden did get a good blend that will be impossible in the future. It used to be so that a majority of the males in Sweden had done a year of conscript service. Everyone had knowledge about soldiering. In a crisis this would have been very useful. These crisis do not need to be war, but also natural disasters, accidents etc. A person trained by the military also know how to act in an emergency. How to do heart-lung reanimation, how to stop bleeding etc. The end of the conscript system lowers Sweden´s capability to cope with unexpected situations.

The conscript service was also a good way of introducing the soldier life to many possible recruits to become officers or specialist officers. A lot of the officers in the Armed Forces of today say, when asked about how they ended up in service, they realized during the conscript year that they liked what they were doing. Otherwise they would most probably never have joined the Armed Forces. The one year service was also e very good way for the officers to find the right recruits who they wanted to serve together with in the future.

Now the Armed Forces need to recruit the right boy and girls directly from the street. This will increase the need and cost of commercials to show what life in the armed forces is about. These commercials have been criticized in Sweden for being too "Hollywood". Life in the Armed Forces are not as glamor as the commercials show. Being a soldier is hard, wet and very often boring. To be interrupted by sheer moments of pure panic. All this for a salary of 17.000 SEK/month!

How will Sweden be able to recruit soldiers to work for 6-8 years with a very low salary? Countries like USA and Great Britain can use free school as a bait. But in Sweden all schools is free. The only cost for the students are loans that are needed to rent a apartment and get food. Maybe the government should pay for these loans? A retirement check of about 1 MSEK would be enough to avoid the need for loan. Ronald Månsson, commander P4 in Skövde thinks the soldiers will get valuable training that will be valuable the day they want to apply for a new job. In his article he focus on the "värdegrund" aspects, i.e. the soldiers will have the right moral view upon sexual and racial equality. This aspect might not be on top of a future employers wish list...

Unfortunately the drop outs from the basic 3 months soldier training has been quite high. According to a SvD article, the drop out rate has been as high as 20% during the second GMU - Basic Military Training. The main reason for drop out is that the recruits does not have the correct physique for the training. According to SvD analysis this might cost as much as 745 MSEK to train more soldiers to fill up the empty spaces. But according to the plan (see picture above) there should be 4000 recruits every year. Out of those 600 are expected to drop out. This is 15%. However this number is based upon both basic and continued training, so the drop out rate from basic training is too high.

What are the reasons for the drop outs?

- The physical standards of the young boys and girls are on an average much lower today compared to 10 years ago. A few years ago the Swedish recruitment office issued a report that stated that the average boy/girl was in bad physical shape and would not pass the conscript service. Less focus on sports and more on Internet might be one reason. That the parents also give their young ride with cars everywhere they are going might be another. Is it really the best trained boys/girls who apply for service? This does not explain all since the recruits have at least passed the physical tests of the recruitment centers. But, are these tests not correct according to the physique needed during basic training? Or is it more than just muscles that is needed?

- The wrong persons are recruited. In the conscript system everyone was exposed to military service and a few were selected. Do the recruits today have the same background as the officers recruited from the conscript system? The new system is supposed to be training the same "raw material" that earlier was sent to officers schools. The one difference is schooling. The Armed Forces are not trying to compete with boys and girls who are planning to go to university, but instead those who are planning to work in the industry. 17.000 SEK per month is not very good compared to most industrial work. The industrial workers do also not need to go to Afghanistan every second year.

- The recruits do not know what they are applying for. When they see the hard life in the Armed Forces they back out. It is maybe not the physique that is the big issue, but the moral will and endurance. Maybe the commercials are attracting the wrong type of recruits?

- Many young people today do not know what they want to do with their life. The unemployment rate is high and according to some officers that I have spoken to some of the recruits do the basic military training just because they didn´t know what to do. Maybe they will stay for a year or two, but they will not stay for the full contract period of 6-8 years.

The Defence HQ and the Minister of Defence all believe the costs will not be as high as SvD and FOI has predicted. Who will be right? Only the future will tell. Unfortunately it might be too late to reverse the course in Sweden. Once the conscript system has been put on hold it will be very difficult to start it back up again.

It is very interesting to see how Minister of Defence, Mr Tolgfors always try his best to stop all discussions about the new conscript system. In Sweden he has been known lately as Bagdad Bob. A man who does not change his message even if the reality changes around him. Unfortunately a lot of career officers has the same view upon things as Mr Tolgfors. The commander P4 statement that moral standards is the most important aspect of a recruit is typical of the Swedish Armed Forces today. Where is the killer? Where is the will to endure hard times in order to achieve the mission goals? Where is the fighting spirit? Quality of material and training is one thing, but the mental will is what differs a good soldier from a bad one. Mr Tolgfors focus too much on a small well trained force suited for missions in Afghanistan. One thing is for sure. Quantity always beet quality. Ask the German commanders of WW2 what happened on the Russian front. Or why not ask ISAF what happened in Afghanistan.

One might say that I am pessimistic. But the truth is that Sweden has adopted a recruitment system that is very much alike the one in USA and UK. But we have a completely different society in Sweden. Sweden lack the poor people that see no other future then being a soldier in the army in order to pay for future studies. How come the system used to work? For one thing we did not have any professional soldiers. We only had officers and they stayed in the system due to comradeship and that they liked what they did at work. These qualities can beat a low salary. But not a too low salary when they start building a family.

My personal view is that every boy and girl should do GMU, 3 months of basic military training. This can bee seen as a "pay back" for the money the government has invested in each end everyone with free social health care and free education. In this way there is no need for false commercials and the training officers can select the best recruits to go on for being soldiers, specialist officers and officers. All those who do not continue with military service will as an bonus get basic training that will be good for the entire society. In case of an emergency these boys/girls will be better suited to handle the situation.

Other Bloggers about the same story: Sinuhe, Cornucopia and Wiseman.

Financial Hostages

Some analysts believe that the global financial interdependency will lead to a more stable world. Why start a war with someone that you do business with?

But this way of thinking could also be reversed, why not do business instead of war with the same strategical goal as the war itself?

In the Baltic Sea Gazprom is building the Nord Stream gas pipeline that in the future will transport natural gas to customers in Germany and France.

That will allow more Russian gas exports to bypass Ukraine, through which 80% is currently routed. Differences with Kiev encouraged Moscow to speed up the project, as well as South Stream, running north and south of the EU bloc.

In January 2009, Russian gas supplies to Europe came to a halt for almost two weeks as Moscow and Kiev rowed over prices and transit terms.

Of course this project is good for the economy of Gazprom, but there are a number of other advantages.

- Russia do not need to rely on Ukraine where most of todays gas go through.

- The pipeline will give Russia a reason to patrol the Baltic Sea close to the Swedish island of Gotland. On Gotland Gazprom has built a facility to control the pipeline. This site is located in the small town of Slite where the unemployment has been high. Between 70-90 MSEK will be invested in the Harbour in Slite. Rumors is that Gazprom has invested this money in Gotland not only to ensure the operations of the pipeline, but also to buy goodwill and interest from the local politicians on Gotland. The Baltic states are very worried about this development, but the political discussion in Sweden has been silenced by the financial interests. During the Cold War a Russian presence in Slite and an upgraded harbor perfect for bigger ships to anchor would not have been welcome. Today a lot of people in Sweden believe that anyone that is against this kind of strategic shift of the balance in the Baltic Sea is nothing to worry about. It is only for the best and will improve the relation between Sweden and Russia.

- The pipeline has closed the bridge between Russia, Germany and France. Russia is now buying French Mistral Amphibious Assault Ships. French companies are working together with Russian companies in the delivery of Su-30 MKI to India and Su-30 MKM to Malaysia. If Russia would ever fine a need to use these Assault Ships e.g. against Georgia there will be very little opposition from Germany and France. On the contrary they will in the future have to high financial interests in Russia to oppose against a Russian action against smaller ex-Soviet states.

- The delivery of gas also put Russia in the position of being able to influence the possibility to produce electrical power in Germany and France. Since Germany will in the future close down all atomic power plants they will be even more in the hands of the Russian. This method has been used against Ukraine in 2009 and against Belarus this Wednesday.

China has been using these methods for many years. They have invested heavily in USA. Not only to be nice to he Americans, but also to be able to put pressure on USA by affecting the financial market. The last few years the American military forces personnel has been more affected by the drop on the real estate market due to the crash of the sub-prime loan system than by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

In Sweden the politicians are very aware of this problem. The financial problems of Saab Automobile could be solved by letting the Russian financial Oligark Vladimir Antonov or the Chinese company Pang Da invest in the company. Saab Automobile is desperate to get money and this will of course result in a very good opportunity for the Russian and Chinese. Who knows what clauses will be in the secret parts of the contract? In the future this could result in Swedish interests being controlled by the Russian mafia or the Chinese communist dictators. Neither is wanted by the Swedish politicians and maybe it is from a political and strategical point of view better to let Saab Automobile slowly fade away then to loose control of the politics in western Sweden to foreign influence?

The usefulness of military thinking in business and vice versa has been known throughout history.

Carl von Clausewitz found a lot of similarities between war and business.

"Rather than comparing [war] to art we could more accurately compare it to commerce, which is also a conflict of human interests and activities; and it is still closer to politics, which in turn may be considered as a kind of commerce on a larger scale." On War, Book I, Ch. 3

In China the indirect method has always been preferred to direct assault. The Chinese always remember the wise teachings of Sun Tzu.

"To fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting."

in more modern times we have John Boyd who invented the OODA-loop for fighter combat. But he later went on in his teachings and used the theories for the OODA-loop into economy. In economy it is more known as PDCA, Plan - Do - Check - Act. When he goes the next step and try to make it into thermodynamics he maybe went a step to far..

Many soldiers has, based upon their war experiences, made a good civilian career as business leaders. They have learned how to lead men and how to take quick decisions. (Note: this does not apply to peace time officers who are not allowed to take any decisions at all by the system).

Why start a war to win territory or natural resources when you can buy them? Why start a war when it is cheaper to buy peace and you will gain the same advantages? On the other hand for some companies war is alway the best thing for business!

In Sweden the Department of Defence is in reality controlled by the Minister of Finance. Maybe Sweden should go one step further and not only control the budget of the military, but also use the military to gain financial advantage? There are a lot of discussions in Sweden about Cyber Warfare, information warfare and IT-soldiers. Why not use this kind of capability in order to make "war" the 21:st century way?

Always remember:

"War is business and business is good".